San Jose, Rotterdam and Buenos Aires: Picks and Previews

We haven’t been paying enough attention to tournament play lately so I’m going to start in picking tournaments this week. The spring indoor hard court season is well underway as is the South American clay court season. Let’s see what’s happening.

San Jose (indoor hard court)

Kei Nishikori has a special exemption into this tournament because he shocked James Blake by beating him in the Delray Beach final last week. Nishikori is an 18 year old Bollettieri-trained player from Japan who qualified into the tournament. I believe he has now equaled the record for ATP singles titles won by Japanese male players: 1.

Nishikoro should be careful though. Jiro Sato reached slam semifinals five times in the 1930’s, but the pressure of representing his country got to him and he committed suicide at age 26. He threw himself into the Strait of Malacca during a Davis Cup trip.

Nishikori is in Andy Roddick’s quarter and even though Nishikori has more game than Blake and, possibly Roddick, I’m going to say that it’ll take him a bit more time to mature. The other strong player in that quarter is Sam Querrey. Roddick beat him here last year and I think he’ll do it again. If Nishikori does take Roddick out, watch out because he beat Querrey last week too.

Tommy Haas is returning after more shoulder problems but he doesn’t have much competition in his quarter. Ditto for Radek Stepanek in his quarter.

James Blake hasn’t done well at this tournament since 2003 and his possible second round opponent, Jesse Levine, has an excellent indoor record at indoor challengers. I’m picking Kristof Vliegen to come out of Blake’s quarter.

San Jose Draw

Semifinals: Roddick, Haas, Stepanek, Vliegen.
Final: Roddick, Stepanek
Winner: Roddick because Andy Murray isn’t here to torture him.

Rotterdam (indoor hard court)

Murray is here instead. For some reason he’s defending the points he won with his 2007 San Jose title by playing in Rotterdam. I’m willing to bet Rotterdam has a lot more appearance money than San Jose judging by the comparative fields of these two tournaments. Rotterdam has five top ten players while San Jose has one.

Murray is in the bottom quarter with Nikolay Davydenko and he’s beaten him the last three times they’ve met and he won Marseille last week so he’s my guy.

Just above him lie David Ferrer and Tomas Berdych. Berdych is an average indoor player and might not be able to get by Ivo Karlovic so I’m choosing Ferrer in that quarter.

The next quarter up is all mixed up. Juan Carlos Ferrero and Mikhail Youzhny both lost their first round matches. Tommy Robredo is there but he’s having a terrible year so I’m going with Nicolas Mahut.

Rafael Nadal is in the top quarter and he has Lleyton Hewitt and Marcos Baghdatis for company, poor guy. Even if Baghdatis gets past Robin Soderling, he’s 0-5 against Nadal. Hewitt is 4-3 over Nadal lifetime and has never lost to him on a fast court, but most of those wins came before 2006 and Nadal retired during the last match they played on grass, so I think Nadal can survive the quarter.

Rotterdam Draw

Semifinals: Nadal, Mahut, Ferrer, Murray
Final: Nadal, Murray
Winner: Nadal because he beat Murray indoors in Madrid last year.

Buenos Aires (clay)

There’s no one dangerous in David Nalbandian’s quarter. He can probably beat Potito Starace who is just returning from his petty gambling suspension. By the way, a fourth Italian player, Giorgio Galimberti, was suspended today for gambling on tennis matches though not his own. Galimberti got a $35,000 fine and a 100 day suspension.

Nicolas Almagro is in the next quarter and he won the tournament in Brazil last week but his possible second round opponent, Oscar Hernandez, beat him twice in Futures and Challenger tournaments and Almagro is notoriously inconsistent. Juan Ignacio Chela reached the quarterfinals here last year so I’m going with him.

Carlos Moya can probably come through his quarter. He’s won this tournament three times and he got to the final in Brazil last week.

Juan Monaco injured his ankle three weeks ago at Vina del Mar and that was unfortunate because he had to forfeit his place in the final. If his ankle is healed he should be okay because he won this tournament last year.

Buenos Aires Draw

Semifinals: Nalbandian, Chela, Moya, Monaco
Final: Nalbandian, Monaco
Winner: Nalbandian