Category Archives: ATP Tournaments

A Quantum Leap in Tennis?

Today we have an appreciation of Roger Federer from our reader Maria Duclaud, a Mexican living in Madrid who loves tennis

I have loved tennis all my life, ever since I was a little girl and my father used to take me to Davis Cup matches when Rafael Osuna, Tony Palafox and Raúl Ramìrez played for Mexico. My father and I never missed a Grand slam and we enjoyed tennis matches as much as soccer and Major League Baseball.

Tennis then was mostly amateur and not so physical. Gentlemen in white clothes with wooden rackets. Wit and intelligence was the thing..(so I thought) more like an elite. The popularity was kind of discreet, there were not so many tournaments and not that much money involved.

When John McEnroe started playing I fell for him immediately. I couldn’t stand Connors’ personality and I found his powerful and consistent game boring. Tennis started to be something different with Connors and evolved in many ways. The rivalry between McEnroe and Connors had begun and every match they played was so much fun.

I admired Borg but his consistency and imperturbability drove me mad. Unforgettable matches between Borg and McEnroe ..and then my beloved Agassi ….the way he learned to play the net, to believe in himself and win matches and tournaments, simply wonderful. Boris Becker, Nastase..so handsome, Wilander..so intelligent…. Santana, Orantes, Sampras !!!!!! such a gifted and humble player…

Then Roger Federer came along and everything changed… he started doing magic shots, with an elegance and with such grace that it seemed almost like a different sport, effortless and smooth, easy and brilliant… The people getting destroyed on the court at Roger’s hands are no amateurs but extremely fit, elite, world-class athletes, and he just plays with them like they are children when things get serious.

It is impossible to overlook the ridiculous degree of difficulty for many of the shots that he makes look easy. There is also a mental aspect to the challenge that he handles with ease, almost never letting the pressure of being #1 get to him or make him quiver. He has reinvented many shots in tennis and even when he loses he plays shots that surprise Roger himself and delight every one else. His capacity to concentrate and the deep understanding that it is not about his opponents but that it is all about him, shows pure wisdom.

I have heard about a New Energy that is accessible to us right now and a Quantum Leap that many humans are taking in these turbulent times. Since tennis is like a mirror of life and one of its greatest manifestations, since we can watch the play of consciousness all around and delight in its complexities, I started to think that Roger Federer is not just one more wonderful Tennis Player but a Master, a Guru that has come to teach us a new way to play the game and how to create a Masterpiece of every game we are involved in.

They say that when you are so integrated and in love with yourself, absolutely in love with yourself, your energy changes and a physics that takes place creates new potentials and new answers. Such a whole, integrated, divine human, so outstanding, can have an amazing effect on other players. He becomes a huge mirror for all of them and this gives everyone motivation and potential to change things.

Roger seems to be a totally integrated, self-healing, self-balancing, self-creating being. He is immersed in this New Energy, an energy that has a graceful flow to it, energy that makes things happen very, very quickly and very easily.
If it ain’t easy it’s not right (when he forgets how easy it is then he loses inexplicably… ) He is complete, he is whole (no need of a coach), wisdom is within him and he is a true Standard being for all, not just for tennis players.

Roger has been showing us a new way to play, a new way of doing things: effortlessly, with joy, with beauty, with simplicity, no need to struggle any more (he doesn’t even sweat), and radiating a special light that make all energies serve him, enhance him and help him create a Masterpiece every time he plays and lets himself go with the flow.

I don’t know if Roger is conscious of this, probably not. Nevertheless, he has a special flexibility and a way of not getting in the way, a way of surrendering to the moment with complete Presence, that makes the impossible possible. He achieves the unthinkable and creates a precedent for future players and for the life of all. I sure think he has helped tennis change and surprisingly enough, has helped manifest a true Quantum Leap in the game. “May those who have Eyes, See; and those who have Ears, Hear”


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ATP Fantasy Picks for Basel, St. Petersburg, and Lyon

We’re deep into the ATP Fantasy Tennis Season so check out my Fantasy Tennis Guide. You’ll find Fast Facts, Strategies, and Statistics to help you play the game.

Sign up and join our subleague! It’s called tennisdiary.com. We send weekly email updates to all subleague members before the submission deadline.

Make your picks before you go to bed Sunday night. The deadline to submit your team is: 11pm in Los Angeles/2am in New York/7am in London.

Rear View Mirror – a look at last week’s picks

I started the week in 14th place and ended in 22nd place.

My strategy of taking the sure $183,000 for Novak Djokovic in Vienna instead of a possible final in Madrid paid off. Djokovic lost in the Madrid semifinals and won “only” $117,000. That was about the only thing I did right but come on, David Nalbandian beating Roger Federer in the Madrid final? I’m half expecting Nalbandian to test positive for synthetic testosterone.

I also made the correct choice of using Rafael Nadal in Stuttgart instead of Madrid. He made $183,000 in Stuttgart and $58,000 in Madrid. Of course, that’s assuming Djokovic and Nadal skip Paris.

I’m off to San Francisco for the week so I won’t be posting very much. If any of you readers would like to weigh in on any tennis subject, just click on the email link at the top of this post and send me your thoughts. I’ll be happy to publish them. Meanwhile, my co-writer Pat Davis will be covering the Federer loss on Tuesday.

There are three tournaments this week and we need eight players. Let’s pick three players from Basel and St. Petersburg and two players from Lyon.

Basel (indoor carpet, first prize: $166,514)

The big question here is whether David Nalbandian has anything left after beating Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer in consecutive matches. Will he even bother to turn up? I’m guessing he will because there are only two tournaments left and then he can rest until January. And, Nalbandian is 18-4 in Basel

Just below Federer is a very tough quarter to pick and we can’t take Federer because everyone I know has used him five times already. Stanislaw Wawrinka beat Nalbandian here last year and got to the semifinals and he beat Nalbandian in Vienna two weeks ago. James Blake, Ivo Karlovic and Tomas Berdych are in this quarter too. Whoa!

I’m picking Wawrinka because he’s beaten Nalbandian the last three times they’ve played. Also, Feliciano Lopez could beat Berdych, and Karlovic could beat Blake.

In the bottom half, Fernando Gonzalez has three qualifiers in his section and he’s fighting to get to the year end championships. So is David Ferrer but he has Paul-Henri Mathieu and Marcos Baghdatis in his quarter and Baghdatis won this tournament in 2005.

If I were you I take Fernando Gonzalez but I’m taking Guillermo Canas because I’m not sure Ferrer can get past Baghdatis and, more importantly, I can’t use Gonzalez anymore. It could get ugly this week as I limp to the finish.

I’m also taking Paul-Henri Mathieu even though he’s not that good on carpet because he should be able to get to the quarterfinals and I need a third player from this draw.

Basel Draw

St. Petersburg (indoor carpet, first prize: $142,000)

Nikolay Davydenko reached the quarterfinals here two years ago otherwise he’s played poorly. That’s a good thing for me because I can only use him one more time so I’m saving him for Paris.

Thomas Johansson has won this twice and reached the final last year so he’s an easy pick.

Mario Ancic was the player who beat Johansson in that final and he’s reached the quarterfinals the last two weeks. He should play Mikhail Youzhny in the second round but I think he can beat him so I’m picking Ancic.

Andy Murray is my third pick. He has an easy quarter.

St. Petersburg Draw

Lyon (indoor carpet, first prize: $132, 384)

This is a very fast carpet surface and that could be why Andy Roddick won this tournament the only time he entered it. I’ve used him up already. His appearance here, by the way, indicates to me that he’s likely to skip Paris.

Unfortunately I’ve used all my Richard Gasquets too and that could be a big problem because he has a very easy quarter. You might want to use him because he’s never been past the third round in Paris.

I’d like to pick Tommy Haas but I’m not sure he can get past Igor Andreev and besides, I was going to save Haas for Paris because he reached the semifinals last year. On the other hand, he didn’t beat anyone important to reach those semis and he’s fighting for the last berth in the year end championships. I’m picking him because I’m desperate for a player.

Lots of people have picked Tommy Robredo to get the last spot in the year end championships but he has a dismal record here. He did reach the Paris semifinals last year so I’m saving him for Paris. I’m picking Juan Monaco. He should be able to get to the quarterfinals.

Lyon Draw

My Picks

Here’s my team: Wawrinka, Canas, Mathieu, T. Johansson, Ancic, Murray, Haas, Monaco,

Happy fantasies!


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Was Nalbandian Lucky a Second Time?

David Nalbandian beat Novak Djokovic one day after beating a tired Rafael Nadal. Was Djokovic tired too?

Yesterday David Nalbandian trounced Rafael Nadal in the Madrid Masters Series event, 6-1, 6-2. I don’t think Nalbandian would have won that match if Nadal had been at full strength. Nadal was clearly reeling from his tough match against Andy Murray and his knees were suffering from playing on the gritty indoor hard court.

Today Nalbandian beat Novak Djokovic, 6-4, 7-6(4). Was Nalbandian lucky again?

If Djokovic did enough things wrong, then Nalbandian was lucky. If Nalbandian did enough things right, then Nalbandian was playing like his old self. The player that used to be the number three player in the world before Djokovic took over the spot.

What did Djokovic do wrong and Nalbandian do right?

Djokovic’s Problems

1. Too much tennis. This is Djokovic’s ninth match in two weeks and a third of those were three set matches. He had trouble getting his feet underneath him. He stumbled a few times and had trouble with his footwork on return of serve.

2. Double faults. Djokovic hit two doubles faults in his first service game and five double faults for the match. His last double fault gave Nalbandian a match point. As Djokovic put it: “It happens, sometimes you play bad.”

3. Unforced errors. As far as I could tell, Djokovic had zero winners from his backhand side. That’s rare. He hit 34 unforced errors in two sets. That’s a lot.

4. Rhythm problems. In his second service game, Djokovic twice hit errors by trying to end the point too soon and lost his serve. Serving at 2-2 in the second set, he hit two drop shots on one point and added another on a later point. He lost both points. He couldn’t figure out when to attack and when to change pace.

Nalbandian’s Positives

1. Attacks. Nalbandian played excellent attacking tennis. He attacked off return of serve and he hit the corners with his ground strokes. He attacked Djokovic’s second serve and he attacked the net. What else is there to attack?

2. Big points. Nalbandian played the big points well. He saved the two break points he faced. In the second set tiebreaker he hit two service winners, a backhand winner, and an excellent return off a tough serve down the middle.

3. Good serves. He served himself out of trouble when he had to.

So which is it? Nalbandian did meet Djokovic on a day when he played badly but Djokovic could have won this match. He pulled even in the second set but Nalbandian kept attacking and played lights out in the tiebreaker.

Nalbandian was lucky. But other players have met Djokovic on one of his bad days this year and they seldom came away with a straight set win.

Nalbandian will play Roger Federer in the final tomorrow. There’s no way in hell Nalbandian wins that one. Is there?


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Will Rafa Lose His Number Two Ranking?

Rafael Nadal lost a lopsided match to David Nalbandian today but he could lose much more.

People at the Madrid Masters Series event saw Rafael Nadal noticeably limping after his win over Andy Murray yesterday. If you knew that, you would have been surprised but not shocked with the score of Rafa’s loss to David Nalbandian today: 6-1, 6-2.

When was the last time Rafa lost a match that badly? In October 2002, he lost to Albert Portas in a Barcelona challenger, 6-2, 6-1. Rafa was 16 years old at the time.

The match with Murray was brutal for both players. I’ve seldom seen two such exceptional defensive players go at it so hard on such a fast surface. It looked like a compact version of an interminable clay court match. The kind of match you’d get if you kept all the good points and threw away everything else.

This is Rafa’s first event since the U.S. Open and only his fourth hard court event since the spring clay court season ended. His knees were already hurting by the time Wimbledon rolled around and he broke down in Cincinnati altogether. He arrived at the Open with bum knees.

And now, the day after a very tough match, he can barely play. If it keeps going like this, and it certainly could, he’ll end up focusing on the clay court season and Wimbledon and live with that.

Nalbandian wasn’t just twiddling his thumbs on the other side of the net. He took the ball early and he flattened out his strokes to take time away from Rafa. Still, you couldn’t see Rafa limping on court but you could see he was in trouble.

In Rafa’s second service game, Nalbandian hit a ball behind him but Rafa couldn’t stop and change his direction well enough to get to it. Stopping and starting on these gritty indoor surfaces is very hard on knees. Serving at 1-5 in the first set, Rafa twice went for winners much earlier in the point that he normally would. Both times he hit errors and the second one gave Nalbandian a set point which he converted.

Nalbandian got five breaks of serve in the match. Rafa didn’t even get a break point. That’s how bad it was.

This must have been very tough for Rafa to swallow but it could be worse than just a lopsided loss. If Novak Djokovic keeps rolling, he could pass Rafa for the number two spot in the year end rankings. Djokovic has already qualified for Shanghai so he would be smart to skip Paris and I don’t see him listed as entering any tournaments next week.

Rafa might not lose his number two ranking to Djokovic this year but it doesn’t look good from here on out. And that is very sad because Rafa had the skills and the will to overtake Federer. As Rafa sat in his chair towards the end of the match, he looked sad himself.


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Federer’s Revenge

I wanted to write about the Andy MurrayRafael Nadal match but it’ll have to wait for tomorrow because there was too much good tennis for me to do it justice tonight. Meanwhile I’ll leave you with a funny video about a grunter, a new poll to figure out who’ll get the last spot in the year end championships, and a short bit about Federer and trading on betting exchanges.

Federer Beatdown

By the time I’d arrived in Indian Wells in March, Roger Federer had already lost his first match to Guillermo Canas. I was just plain annoyed but many people were shocked.

We understood it psychologically. Canas was convinced that he’d been suspended unfairly for being mistakenly given a banned substance by a tour-approved doctor. If you can’t trust a tournament doctor, who the hell can you trust? And what better way to express his frustration than knocking off the number one player.

As luck would have it, Canas got Federer again at the next tournament in Miami and beat him once again. Something appeared to be wrong with Federer in the first match but Canas outplayed him in the second. Federer was up a break in the third set and had two chances to go up another break but still lost the match.

This brings up an interesting question. Let’s say Federer was injured at Indian Wells, sprained ankle, blisters, whatever. On the one hand you don’t want to reveal your injury else your opponent will smell blood. On the other hand, if your opponent beats you and thinks he’s beaten you straight up, that could give him a huge psychological advantage and that advantage may have carried Canas through the match in Miami.

In case there was any doubt about the matter, Federer reminded us today that Canas is not someone he worries about. It took him only 21 minutes to bagel Canas in the first set. That was a statement.

Federer was all over Canas from the get go. Federer won 80% of the points on Canas’ second serve and he won 25 more points than Canas in the match. That’s a huge margin in a two set match. The final score was 6-0, 6-3.

Traders and Punters

I realized this week that users on betting exchanges are sometimes traders, not betters. (Betters in England are called punters.)

A betting exchange is an open market – like a stock market – and the commodities being traded are odds. In this case, odds that a tennis player will win a match or a horse will win a race or a soccer team will win a game.

Tennis punters bet on a player at particular odds. They research a player and figure out the likelihood that the player will win the match. Traders bet on the pattern of the odds. They study price patterns and figure out the likelihood that the odds will go up or down.

It’s like betting on the direction of the Dow Jones Index instead of buying or selling a stock.

Lots of trades in stock markets are made by software programs not humans. According to this report by Aite Group, about one third of U.S. trades in 2006 were made by computer software.

Given that, I wondered if there were software programs for trading on the tennis market on a betting exchange. And if there were programs, could they have contributed to some of the irregular betting patterns we’ve seen. Computers can trade a whole lot faster than humans and it’s possible a piece of software went wonky and started spewing out repeated $30,000 bets.

I spoke to a Betfair user and he told me that some traders use software to make their trades but it’s not likely that they produced irregular results. After all, I now realize, an irregular betting pattern isn’t a random betting pattern.

If you were fixing a match or had inside information, these irregular patterns would look very regular to you. They’d be exactly what you expected.

One last comment about gambling. Betfair pays out bets on any match that completes the first set. Wouldn’t it make sense to pay out on a match only if the match was completed by both players? It wouldn’t stop match fixing or trading on insider information, but it would help if there was insider information about an injury that led to a retirement.

This, by the way, is a plausible explanation for the Nikolay Davydenko/Martin Vassallo-Arguello match that started our recent fascination with gambling in tennis.


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