Fantasy Tennis turned out to be more like the Nightmare on Elm Street this past week, and what’s more it’s consuming lots of me and my time. I must confess though, I am turning into an addict. It’s getting so I don’t even care about actually seeing the matches; just betting on the players so to speak has been scintillating enough. Don’t get me wrong, I would have liked very much in fact to see that Federer-Nadal final Sunday in Rome. But filling out the draw each week in anticipation of who the eight players are to emerge from the field has become compelling enough.

How do we make our picks? My co-writer, Nina Rota, can probably speak to that herself, I know for me I spend a lot of time just looking at the entire draw. Visually I have to see a picture of it overall. Then you start to see the possibilities as they open up. You see what a great depth of field there is now in men’s tennis. For me, one of the delights of the week is to see on Sunday what the draw will be for the week’s coming event.

Hunches work a lot for me. I am a big believer that first you have to look at the stats a bit and compare the records of players, you do the formal homework. But then you rely on your instincts, or at least I start to.

The ATP Tournament website has a feature wherein you type in two players’ names, and you get their match records against each other. It’s a quick thumbnail of personal stats and whatnot, and I find it helpful in making decisions.

Scoping out the latest news is good too, in case some last minute additions or subtractions have occurred in the field. Often there is just no accounting for injuries and withdrawals until they happen.

If the tournament is held in a particular country, we may also want to check to see how many local guys are playing it. No matter how lowly their ranking, local guys have a way of getting support from the crowd behind them. Before you know it, there can be upsets in the making. It would be far better to play someone like Sebastian Grosjean on the grass of Wimbledon, even though he does pretty well on grass, then on clay, in Paris, with the crowd screaming for him. That’s the advantage of the Hometown Advantage.

What can be annoying though about playing Fantasy Tennis is that you can spend forever planning your draws, and things still go haywire. This past week was a stellar example. We all took it pretty good on the chin. It was a great field, but the favorites were dropping every which way. And who would have expected Andy Roddick to make the run he did, sort of? But then to lose to a younger player like Gael Monfils? It was lucky I picked Nadal, because he saved my bacon. I am still atop the Tennisdiary team, but that may not continue after this past week. I scratch my head over my exalted ranking

So what’s happening in the Hamburg Masters event this week? We have stressed the need to be judicious in picking players like Federer and Nadal, because they can only be picked five times during the year. Mostly they are for the slams, and perhaps one or two other events now and in mid summer. But this week I am bringing both “big gun” guys into action, together yet again probably in the Hamburg final next Sunday. These two guys, what cheek.

Here are my picks for the Hamburg quarterfinals:

Federer-Robredo: (Roger to win)

I think Federer would be best served by keeping up his high level of play into Hamburg, he will be resting next week and the French starts after that. He should go out and give it his all this week, just about peaking in his form.

Davydenko-Moya: (Davydenko to win)

A Moya victory is always a welcome thing, and Davydenko had to retire with in Rome last week. But that’s probably more reason for him to do well this week.

Gonzalez-Ljubicic: (Ljubicic to win)

Two sturdy guys in this one, we should be here a while. Lube had an early exit in Rome at the hands of Dominik Hrbaty, and before that to Fernando Gonzalez in Monte Carlo, but again, more incentive for him to get his act together here. This match could be very close, but Ljubicic is the higher seed, we have to go with him.

Gaudio-Nadal: (Nadal to win)

Gaston has faltered a bit of late, going out in 3 sets in the opening round to Xavier Malisse in Rome last week. But ’tis the season of clay, and who else in that corner of the draw will give him trouble? Nicolas Kiefer? Luis Horna? Stepanek? He’ll get by them I predict, but that boy in the pirate pants….

These would be the semifinal picks:

Federer-Davydenko
Ljubicic-Nadal

And the final:

Federer and Nadal. Nadal and Federer. I would agree with Nina Rota’s pick of Federer to win the final, the man is getting closer.

A Postscript:

Well, it is now Monday afternoon, and Hamburg is looking like chopped liver. Again, the draw is topsy-turvy. I hate Mondays, but I may as well not try and cheat and rework my picks at this late date. But I am tempted. Federer and Nadal have already pulled out. Exhaustion. Well, let’s cut the lads some slack, shall we? After five hours and five minutes in Rome, if anyone has the right to claim exhaustion it’s these two. This can happen in Fantasy Tennis, the guys you want may suddenly have other ideas, or get sick, or get exhausted. You may not know this until it is too late.

I mistakenly picked Marcos Baghdatis and Rafael Nadal to get to the final eight. Then I realized they are both in the same corner of the draw, no way both of them could be in that end of the field. So I tried to change my Fantasy picks late last night. I was going to substitute Tommy Robredo for Baghdatis. But the deadline had passed(!) Baghdatis retired today in his match against Stepanek, due to breathing difficulty. Robredo won his opener. Eeewww. I’m having breathing difficulty now. Maybe the doc can drop by on his way off the courts, after dealing with all those, you know, exhausted people.

Tommy Haas probably started breathing a lot easier, now that Nadal is gone and Robin Soderling took his place in the draw. I did not give Haas a snowball chance in hell against Nadal, but now he might have a nice run on his home turf. But I didn’t bet on Tommy, so more boo hooing.

My man Moya lost in three today to James Blake, who dropped his first round match last week. Go figure. Safin lost early today, ditto Coria. Something told me to stay away from Safin and Coria in the wagering department; these guys have been all over the place of late. Gasquet and Berdych: still waiting to gel. Both are gone today too.

So, the field of battle is not looking pretty. Two of my guys did not show up, Federer and Nadal. Baghdatis was a mistaken pick and he couldn’t catch his breath anyway. Moya was really the only one who actually died in combat. So half of my field is already gone. I am left with Davydenko, Gonzalez, Ljubicic and Gaudio. Not exactly a field full of knights in shining army.

But I’ll be sure and whimper quietly on my way out the door. Is it time to drink yet?

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