Monthly Archives: May 2006

ATP Fantasy Tennis: Estoril and Munich finish

One for two is not bad.

Nalbandian took Estoril and is now ranked a career high number three. In Munich, Oliver Rochus beat his best friend Kristof Vliegen, which doesn’t affect the fantasy season that much for most people.

Here you go, the final tally.

ESTORIL OPEN

1. Nalbandian (1) Nalbandian Nalbandian Nalbandian Nalbandian Nalbandian
2. Nicolas Mahut
3. J. Chardy J. Chardy
4. Y.T. Wang
5. qualifier Gil Gil
6. Frederico Gil
7. qualifier Tursunov
8. D. Tursunov(5)
9. Gael Monfils (4) Monfils Portas Portas
10. Razvan Sabau
11. J. A. Marin Portas
12. Albert Portas
13. Lukas Dlouhy Gimelstob Gimelstob
14. J. Gimelstob
15. Raemon Sluiter Massu
16. N. Massu (7)
17. Carlos Moya (6) Moya Moya Moya Davydenko
18. Flavio Saretta
19. G. Marcaccio Marcaccio
20. Tomas Zib
21. Garcia-Lopez Garcia-Lopez Garcia-Lopez
22. qualifier
23. Carlos Berlocq Berlocq
24. Didac Perez
25. C. Rochus (8) Muller Muller Davydenko
26. Gilles Muller
27. Lapentti Lapentti
28. Przysienzny
29. Marat Safin Safin Davydenko
30. qualifier
31. V. Spadea Davydenko
32. Davydenko (2)

BMW OPEN – MUNICH

1. G. Coria (1) Gremelmayr Gremelmayr Rochus Rochus Rochus
2. D. Gremelmayr
3. A. Peya Peya
4. D. Kindlmann
5. qualifier Ramirez Hidalgo Rochus
6. R. Ramirez Hidalgo
7. Julio Silva Rochus
8. Olivier Rochus (5)
9. Tommy Haas (4) Karlovic Karlovic Melzer
10. Ivo Karlovic
11. qualifier Phau
12. Bjorn Phau
13. Simon Greul Greul Melzer
14. Boris Pashanski
15. Jurgen Melzer Melzer
16. M. Youzhny (7)
17. Srichaphan (6) Monaco Vik Nieminen Vliegen
18. Juan Monaco
19. Robin Vik Vik
20. R. Schuettler
21. Alexander Waske Waske Nieminen
22. Florian Mayer
23. Andrei Pavel Nieminen
24. J. Nieminen (3)
25. Florent Serra (8) Soderling Vliegen Vliegen
26. Robin Soderling
27. Janko Tipsarevic Vliegen
28. Kristof Vliegen
29. Andreas Beck Hernych Kohlschreiber
30. Jan Hernych
31. P. Kohlschreiber Kohlschreiber
32. Mario Ancic (2)

ATP Fantasy Tennis: overall strategy and Rome picks

OVERALL STRATEGY

Since you can only use a player five times in the ATP fantasy league, it’s critical to map out your strategy at the beginning of the season. If you look at this list of tournaments ordered by prize money, you see that the slams and the Masters Series events are the clear focus of anyone’s strategy. The slams all pay over a million dollars in prize money and Masters Series events pay from $340,000 – $400,000. The next highest prize money $140,000 for Moscow and St. Petersburg. Wow, it’s not just those new money Russians paying $95 million for a Picasso, they pay tennis players pretty well too.

“Rafa’s on a great streak, but it’s got to end some time.”

Let’s start at the beginning. Who are you going to pick for the French Open, the Wimbledon and the US Open? Barring injury, of course, it’s silly not to pick Federer for Wimbledon. If there’s a sure win on the list, that’s it. Nadal at the French Open would be second. And even though it means that Federer has to win three of the four slams, he’s the obvious choice for the US Open.

The next obvious strategy is to pick any Masters Series tournament that either Nadal or Federer, but not both, will play.

Nadal won Monte Carlo and Rome last year and is likely to do so this year. He’ll probably take Hamburg off again to rest – for the hundredth time, tell me why Rome and Hamburg are back to back and only a week before the French Open? Nadal is not as strong on hard courts but he did win the only Masters Series event in his home country – Madrid, with its $378,000 prize – and is a good bet to win it again. That’s four events, what’s the fifth one? A lot of people chose Barcelona, Nadal is a proud guy, he wants to win in Spain, but it’s only $130,200 whereas second place in any Master Series event will get you at least $170,000. Nadal won the Toronto Masters last year and it’s worth $400,000. He can probably win Toronto or Cincinatti so pick whichever one he plays and you have your five tournaments.

As for Federer, we already gave him two tournaments, Wimbledon and the US Open. He was 15-2 last year on clay and did play Hamburg where he is not likely to lose to Gasquet again. You can probably pencil him in for either Toronto or Cincinatti, whichever one Nadal skips. Federer didn’t play Madrid last year because he was injured and even if he does play, I’d choose Nadal at home.

Only a handful of the top players go to the Paris Masters event since it’s so close to to the end of year tournament in Shanghai. Only the top eight players are invited to Shanghai and if you’re already in the top eight, why risk injury? Look at Andy Roddick, he injured himself in Paris and never got to Shanghai. Here is a problem with the ATP fantasy league season. By the time we started, we’d already missed two Masters Series events, Indian Wells and Miami, and Federer won both of those this year and last, so we are left with seven, and, you could say, six since so few play Paris.

Federer could play Paris, he did play in 2003, but that’s the last tournament of the year so you’d be leaving your decision till Madrid.

Later this week I’ll look at possible strategies for second tier players and the rest of the pack.

Any comments about alternative strategies anyone? Anything short of poker ads and porn links are welcome additions to the discussion.

ROME PICKS

Top half of the draw

The winner gets a picture of me dressed as Barbarella the Crossing Guard

I was surprised to learn that Jarkko Nieminen was 22-8 on clay last year. He played well in Munich last week but it probably doesn’t matter because he’d meet Federer in the third round. Massu vs. Davydenko is tricky because Massu got to the final in Casablanca and Davydenko got to the final last week in Estoril. I’m feeling a bit better about Davydenko at the moment so I’ll give it to him. He’ll lose to Federer too but it’s a quarterfinal appearance.

Ferrero is looking more consistent on clay than Mathieu but either one will go down to Nalbandian. Kiefer has a losing record on clay and Bracciali is hot but it’ll still be Nalbandian through to the quarters.

Blake is just beginning on clay but Serra and Blake had similar clay records last year and Serra is 2-5 on the year so I’ll give Blake a push. Ancic is pretty hopeless on clay and Horna had been playing on clay all year but I think Coria can hold it together to get to the quarters and lose to Nalbandian.

Bottom half of the draw

Let’s have the first of the clay court season “what round will Andy Roddick lose in?” competitions. Either Baghdatis or Olivier Rochus can beat him so I say the second round. The winner gets a picture of me dressed as Barbarella the Crossing Guard. If I win, everyone who entered has to send me a picture of themselves in drag. If you pick the same round as me, I win. It’s my column, I make the rules.

Baghdatis has a career 5-10 record on clay and Rochus is 6-1 on clay this year. Matchstats.com, by the way, is an excellent resource for player statistics including records on different surfaces and head-to-head comparisons. Be careful, though, they include challengers in their totals for different surfaces. Tomas Berdych looks good on clay until you see that all of his wins are in challengers.

Haas should rebound unless an injury is bothering him. He’s beaten Ljubicic in both Masters Series events they’ve played and has a better record on clay. Robredo has beaten Haas both times they’ve met on clay and should get to the semis. Use Robredo on your team in the clay court season, his two titles are on clay.

Gaudio beat Berdych in their only clay court match and is 4-0 against Gonzalez including two matches on clay. Alessio Di Mauro is a curious guy. Every tournament he’s played in his two year career has been on clay except for one appearance at Wimbledon. I’m tempted to put him over Henman but Henman got to the third round at Rome and Hamburg last year. No matter, he’s in Nadal’s quarter of the draw.

Poor Carlos Moya has to face Rafael Nadal in the first round. After his loss in the semifinals at Estoril, he said, “Rafa’s on a great streak, but it’s got to end some time.” True, but not in the first round and not likely in Rome either.


ATP Fantasy Tennis: Estoril and Munich semis set

One upset on the day – remember, an upset here is any result that disagrees with my pick. Just when I thought the tall one was ready to roll into the semis – I was looking forward to seeing six-foot-ten Ivo Karlovic play five-foot-five Olivier Rochus – Jurgen Melzer interfered.

Rochus and Karlovic have played each other four times. Rochus is ahead 3-1 in the series but what is really, really strange is that Rochus beat Karlovic on hard court twice, grass (!) once, and lost his only match to Karlovic on clay. O.k., the clay court match was in a futures tournament in 2000 but the grass court match was last year in Nottingham. How did that happen? Karlovic’s serve should have rocketed past the outstretched arms of the small one.

I already had Rochus through to the final and I’ll stick with it but I’m nervous about this pick because Melzer has a 3-2 record over Rochus and won the two matches on clay. But both clay victories were in his home country of Austria and Rochus is ranked forty points higher. That should count for something.

By rights, Carolos Moya should easily beat Davidenko. Moya has won a title at Monte Carlo, Estoril, Barcelona, and Rome and has a 4-0 record against Davydenko, including three matches on clay. Oh, and then there was that French Open title in 1998. Meanwhile, this is Davydenko’s fourth clay court tournament of the year and it’s the first time he’s gone past the second round. Still, Moya is not a sure thing any more on any surface and I think this might be the day that Davydenko gets his first victory in the series.

Kristof Vliegen beat Jarkko Nieminen in the first round at Monte Carlo but Nieminen got to the quarterfinals in Barcelona – where he lost to Rafael Nadal. I have no idea who’s going to win but I’ll keep Nieminen in the finals only because I’m too lazy to change my pick.

By the way, there is an ATP injury list here. You’ll notice that there are twenty-five injuries labeled as unknown including three for Raemon Sluiter and one for Tommy Haas. Can you imagine a baseball player going on the injured list with an unknown injury? Does the ATP have any control over players pulling out of tournaments or is “unknown” now an acceptable injury category?

(names in blue are my predictions)
ESTORIL OPEN

1. Nalbandian (1) Nalbandian Nalbandian Nalbandian Nalbandian Nalbandian
2. Nicolas Mahut
3. J. Chardy J. Chardy
4. Y.T. Wang
5. qualifier Gil Gil
6. Frederico Gil
7. qualifier Tursunov
8. D. Tursunov(5)
9. Gael Monfils (4) Monfils Portas Portas
10. Razvan Sabau
11. J. A. Marin Portas
12. Albert Portas
13. Lukas Dlouhy Gimelstob Gimelstob
14. J. Gimelstob
15. Raemon Sluiter Massu
16. N. Massu (7)
17. Carlos Moya (6) Moya Moya Moya Davydenko
18. Flavio Saretta
19. G. Marcaccio Marcaccio
20. Tomas Zib
21. Garcia-Lopez Garcia-Lopez Garcia-Lopez
22. qualifier
23. Carlos Berlocq Berlocq
24. Didac Perez
25. C. Rochus (8) Muller Muller Davydenko
26. Gilles Muller
27. Lapentti Lapentti
28. Przysienzny
29. Marat Safin Safin Davydenko
30. qualifier
31. V. Spadea Davydenko
32. Davydenko (2)

BMW OPEN – MUNICH

1. G. Coria (1) Gremelmayr Gremelmayr Rochus Rochus Nieminen
2. D. Gremelmayr
3. A. Peya Peya
4. D. Kindlmann
5. qualifier Ramirez Hidalgo Rochus
6. R. Ramirez Hidalgo
7. Julio Silva Rochus
8. Olivier Rochus (5)
9. Tommy Haas (4) Karlovic Karlovic Melzer
10. Ivo Karlovic
11. qualifier Phau
12. Bjorn Phau
13. Simon Greul Greul Melzer
14. Boris Pashanski
15. Jurgen Melzer Melzer
16. M. Youzhny (7)
17. Srichaphan (6) Monaco Vik Nieminen Nieminen
18. Juan Monaco
19. Robin Vik Vik
20. R. Schuettler
21. Alexander Waske Waske Nieminen
22. Florian Mayer
23. Andrei Pavel Nieminen
24. J. Nieminen (3)
25. Florent Serra (8) Soderling Vliegen Vliegen
26. Robin Soderling
27. Janko Tipsarevic Vliegen
28. Kristof Vliegen
29. Andreas Beck Hernych Kohlschreiber
30. Jan Hernych
31. P. Kohlschreiber Kohlschreiber
32. Mario Ancic (2)

ATP Fantasy League: Estoril and Munich calm down

Estoril and Munich completed their second rounds on Thursday with only one upset. By upset I mean a result at odds with my pick. Finally, some success.

Portuguese player Frederico Gil – Estoril is in Portugal by the way – is ranked number 246 and beat Dmitri Tursunov. I suppose you could call it an upset since Tursunov is ranked number 33, but Tursunov has moved past the second round in exactly one clay court tournament in his career: Houston in 2004. As we always say here, Houston doesn’t count because the European players skip it.

Fantasy tennis is an obsession, there are probably few concrete reasons to recommend it, but I will say that you learn a lot more about every player in the draw than you ever wanted to know. Tursunov, it turns out, was born in Moscow but lives in Roseville, California. I live in California and I’ve never heard of it. Roseville is next to Citrus Heights which is next to Sacramento, the state capital. Tursunove moved to the U.S. when he was twelve years old which might explain why he has taken the tennis world by storm this week with his ATP blog. No wonder his English is so good.

Tursunov is based at the Higueras-Gorin Tennis Academy in the Sacramento area. Guillermo Coria has just started to work with Jose Higueras which might explain why Coria recently moved to Palm Springs. Living in California is a good idea but who wants to live in Sacramento?

We don’t want to forget the women altogether. The match of the week was Venus Williams vs. Martina Hingis. It was fascinating for a few reasons. This is the first time they’ve met since Hingis rejoined the tour and it’s only Venus’ second tournament of the year. Venus managed to beat Hingis in three sets. Venus’ achilles heel has always been her second serve but it’s a laser compared to Hingis’. I’d love to see Hingis’ serving statistics but the WTA is far behind the ATP when it comes to stats unless it’s a grand slam tournament or a combined tournament. Once the match is removed from the live scores window, the stats are gone.

The WTA also does not have a simple stats page nor anything like the ATP Vault, a database of past tournaments with results including challenger and future events. Memo to the WTA: If you want tennis journalists to write about your game, give them something to work with. Statistics would be a good start. Hint: look at the ATP’s site for starters.

That’s enough complaining for one day. Here are the current draws for Estoril and Munich.

(names in blue are my predictions)
ESTORIL OPEN

1. Nalbandian (1) Nalbandian Nalbandian Nalbandian Nalbandian Nalbandian
2. Nicolas Mahut
3. J. Chardy J. Chardy
4. Y.T. Wang
5. qualifier Gil Gil
6. Frederico Gil
7. qualifier Tursunov
8. D. Tursunov(5)
9. Gael Monfils (4) Monfils Portas Portas
10. Razvan Sabau
11. J. A. Marin Portas
12. Albert Portas
13. Lukas Dlouhy Gimelstob Gimelstob
14. J. Gimelstob
15. Raemon Sluiter Massu
16. N. Massu (7)
17. Carlos Moya (6) Moya Moya Moya Davydenko
18. Flavio Saretta
19. G. Marcaccio Marcaccio
20. Tomas Zib
21. Garcia-Lopez Garcia-Lopez Garcia-Lopez
22. qualifier
23. Carlos Berlocq Berlocq
24. Didac Perez
25. C. Rochus (8) Muller Muller Davydenko
26. Gilles Muller
27. Lapentti Lapentti
28. Przysienzny
29. Marat Safin Safin Davydenko
30. qualifier
31. V. Spadea Davydenko
32. Davydenko (2)

BMW OPEN – MUNICH

1. G. Coria (1) Gremelmayr Gremelmayr Rochus Rochus Nieminen
2. D. Gremelmayr
3. A. Peya Peya
4. D. Kindlmann
5. qualifier Ramirez Hidalgo Rochus
6. R. Ramirez Hidalgo
7. Julio Silva Rochus
8. Olivier Rochus (5)
9. Tommy Haas (4) Karlovic Karlovic Karlovic
10. Ivo Karlovic
11. qualifier Phau
12. Bjorn Phau
13. Simon Greul Greul Melzer
14. Boris Pashanski
15. Jurgen Melzer Melzer
16. M. Youzhny (7)
17. Srichaphan (6) Monaco Vik Nieminen Nieminen
18. Juan Monaco
19. Robin Vik Vik
20. R. Schuettler
21. Alexander Waske Waske Nieminen
22. Florian Mayer
23. Andrei Pavel Nieminen
24. J. Nieminen (3)
25. Florent Serra (8) Soderling Vliegen Vliegen
26. Robin Soderling
27. Janko Tipsarevic Vliegen
28. Kristof Vliegen
29. Andreas Beck Hernych Kohlschreiber
30. Jan Hernych
31. P. Kohlschreiber Kohlschreiber
32. Mario Ancic (2)

ATP Fantasy Tennis: change the rules!

The rules should be changed to help me, of course. A semifinalist and quarterfinalist in my Estoril draw, Nicolas Almagro and Tommy Robredo, dropped out after the first match of the tournament which is the deadline for substitutions in the ATP Fantasy League. Both players were scheduled to play on the second day of the tournament.

There’s luck in any game, if Kobe Bryant goes down with a sprained ankle, there goes the Lakers, but we should be able to make a substitution any time before a player’s first match.

There’s luck in any game, if Kobe Bryant goes down with a sprained ankle, there goes the Lakers, but we should be able to make a substitution any time before a player’s first match. That would keep us glued to the tournament website and could even result in endless calls to tournament directors for the latest injury list. Our behavior might start to look very similar to that strange animal known as a baseball fantasy league team owner.

Who knows, the interactivity of tennis fantasy teams could provoke an interest in tennis that other forms of exposure haven’t yet produced. In the recent past, sports mania has always been driven by star power but many young sports addicts get their fix playing video games, not watching games.

I don’t have a percentage for the number of baseball websites driven by fantasy league players but I know that Most Valuable Network, and most other sports networks, have a section devoted entirely to baseball transactions such as players who go on and off the injury list or are optioned to the minor leagues. When we get a site devoted entirely to tennis injuries and pullouts, then we’ll know that we’re a major sport.

Am I delusional or not? Will fantasy leagues increase the popularity of tennis? What do you think?

When we get a site devoted entirely to tennis injuries and pullouts, then we’ll know that we’re a major sport.

Almagro and Robredo are gone due to back problems and abdominals. Basically, it’s called too much tennis. Look at the ATP schedule. Coming up are two Masters Series tournaments in a row, Rome and Hamburg. Three times in a season two big tournaments follow one another. Rome and Hamburg, Toronto and Cincinatti, and, at the end of the season, the Paris Masters is followed by the year-end championships. If you’re one of the eight players in the year-end championship, why risk playing Paris? How else do you think Tomas Berdych got his first Masters win and how often will Ivan Ljubicic let such a golden opportunity slip through his hands?

Anyway, back to Estoril. With Robredo out, Moya should get an easy path to the quarters and meet Safin. That’s a real bonus to Moya because neither Safin – or Davydenko if I’m wrong – should be Moya’s equal on clay.

Muller beat Rochus surprisingly and Muller vs. Lapentti is hard to call. Lapentti is on the down side and Muller is rather hopeless on clay but I went with youth. Unless Muller has one of his once-a-year brilliant games in the third round and gets to the quarters, it won’t matter much.

Hopefully Moya can do much better than Guillermo Coria. My team member and the number one seed at Munich was beaten by German qualifier Denis Gremelmayr. Coria’s battle with his serve has hit rock bottom, he had seventeen double faults. Maybe he should hire Elena Dementieva to teach him how to win with 17 double faults.

Not only that but Tommy Haas lost to Ivo Karlovic, Mikhail Youzhny lost to Jurgen Melzer, and Mario Ancic lost to Philipp Kohlschreiber. Have I somehow entered a parallel universe where everything is backwards? Where the number eighty-six player is better than the number nineteen player?

The reworked Estoril and Munich draws are below. As always, chime in.

(names in blue are my predictions)
ESTORIL OPEN

1. Nalbandian (1) Nalbandian Nalbandian Nalbandian Nalbandian Nalbandian
2. Nicolas Mahut
3. J. Chardy J. Chardy
4. Y.T. Wang
5. qualifier Gil Tursonov
6. Frederico Gil
7. qualifier Tursunov
8. D. Tursunov(5)
9. Gael Monfils (4) Monfils Monfils Massu
10. Razvan Sabau
11. J. A. Marin Portas
12. Albert Portas
13. Lukas Dlouhy Gimelstob Massu
14. J. Gimelstob
15. Raemon Sluiter Massu
16. N. Massu (7)
17. Carlos Moya (6) Moya Moya Moya Moya
18. Flavio Saretta
19. G. Marcaccio Marcaccio
20. Tomas Zib
21. Garcia-Lopez Garcia-Lopez Garcia-Lopez
22. qualifier
23. Carlos Berlocq Berlocq
24. Didac Perez
25. C. Rochus (8) Muller Muller Safin
26. Gilles Muller
27. Lapentti Lapentti
28. Przysienzny
29. Marat Safin Safin Safin
30. qualifier
31. V. Spadea Davydenko
32. Davydenko (2)

BMW OPEN – MUNICH

1. G. Coria (1) Gremelmayr Gremelmayr Rochus Rochus Nieminen
2. D. Gremelmayr
3. A. Peya Peya
4. D. Kindlmann
5. qualifier Ramirez Hidalgo Rochus
6. R. Ramirez Hidalgo
7. Julio Silva Rochus
8. Olivier Rochus (5)
9. Tommy Haas (4) Karlovic Karlovic Karlovic
10. Ivo Karlovic
11. qualifier Phau
12. Bjorn Phau
13. Simon Greul Greul Melzer
14. Boris Pashanski
15. Jurgen Melzer Melzer
16. M. Youzhny (7)
17. Srichaphan (6) Monaco Monaco Nieminen Nieminen
18. Juan Monaco
19. Robin Vik Vik
20. R. Schuettler
21. Alexander Waske Mayer Nieminen
22. Florian Mayer
23. Andrei Pavel Nieminen
24. J. Nieminen (3)
25. Florent Serra (8) Soderling Soderling Soderling
26. Robin Soderling
27. Janko Tipsarevic Vliegen
28. Kristof Vliegen
29. Andreas Beck Hernych Kohlschreiber
30. Jan Hernych
31. P. Kohlschreiber Kohlschreiber
32. Mario Ancic (2)