OVERALL STRATEGY
Since you can only use a player five times in the ATP fantasy league, it’s critical to map out your strategy at the beginning of the season. If you look at this list of tournaments ordered by prize money, you see that the slams and the Masters Series events are the clear focus of anyone’s strategy. The slams all pay over a million dollars in prize money and Masters Series events pay from $340,000 – $400,000. The next highest prize money $140,000 for Moscow and St. Petersburg. Wow, it’s not just those new money Russians paying $95 million for a Picasso, they pay tennis players pretty well too.
“Rafa’s on a great streak, but it’s got to end some time.”
Let’s start at the beginning. Who are you going to pick for the French Open, the Wimbledon and the US Open? Barring injury, of course, it’s silly not to pick Federer for Wimbledon. If there’s a sure win on the list, that’s it. Nadal at the French Open would be second. And even though it means that Federer has to win three of the four slams, he’s the obvious choice for the US Open.
The next obvious strategy is to pick any Masters Series tournament that either Nadal or Federer, but not both, will play.
Nadal won Monte Carlo and Rome last year and is likely to do so this year. He’ll probably take Hamburg off again to rest – for the hundredth time, tell me why Rome and Hamburg are back to back and only a week before the French Open? Nadal is not as strong on hard courts but he did win the only Masters Series event in his home country – Madrid, with its $378,000 prize – and is a good bet to win it again. That’s four events, what’s the fifth one? A lot of people chose Barcelona, Nadal is a proud guy, he wants to win in Spain, but it’s only $130,200 whereas second place in any Master Series event will get you at least $170,000. Nadal won the Toronto Masters last year and it’s worth $400,000. He can probably win Toronto or Cincinatti so pick whichever one he plays and you have your five tournaments.
As for Federer, we already gave him two tournaments, Wimbledon and the US Open. He was 15-2 last year on clay and did play Hamburg where he is not likely to lose to Gasquet again. You can probably pencil him in for either Toronto or Cincinatti, whichever one Nadal skips. Federer didn’t play Madrid last year because he was injured and even if he does play, I’d choose Nadal at home.
Only a handful of the top players go to the Paris Masters event since it’s so close to to the end of year tournament in Shanghai. Only the top eight players are invited to Shanghai and if you’re already in the top eight, why risk injury? Look at Andy Roddick, he injured himself in Paris and never got to Shanghai. Here is a problem with the ATP fantasy league season. By the time we started, we’d already missed two Masters Series events, Indian Wells and Miami, and Federer won both of those this year and last, so we are left with seven, and, you could say, six since so few play Paris.
Federer could play Paris, he did play in 2003, but that’s the last tournament of the year so you’d be leaving your decision till Madrid.
Later this week I’ll look at possible strategies for second tier players and the rest of the pack.
Any comments about alternative strategies anyone? Anything short of poker ads and porn links are welcome additions to the discussion.
ROME PICKS
Top half of the draw
The winner gets a picture of me dressed as Barbarella the Crossing Guard
I was surprised to learn that Jarkko Nieminen was 22-8 on clay last year. He played well in Munich last week but it probably doesn’t matter because he’d meet Federer in the third round. Massu vs. Davydenko is tricky because Massu got to the final in Casablanca and Davydenko got to the final last week in Estoril. I’m feeling a bit better about Davydenko at the moment so I’ll give it to him. He’ll lose to Federer too but it’s a quarterfinal appearance.
Ferrero is looking more consistent on clay than Mathieu but either one will go down to Nalbandian. Kiefer has a losing record on clay and Bracciali is hot but it’ll still be Nalbandian through to the quarters.
Blake is just beginning on clay but Serra and Blake had similar clay records last year and Serra is 2-5 on the year so I’ll give Blake a push. Ancic is pretty hopeless on clay and Horna had been playing on clay all year but I think Coria can hold it together to get to the quarters and lose to Nalbandian.
Bottom half of the draw
Let’s have the first of the clay court season “what round will Andy Roddick lose in?” competitions. Either Baghdatis or Olivier Rochus can beat him so I say the second round. The winner gets a picture of me dressed as Barbarella the Crossing Guard. If I win, everyone who entered has to send me a picture of themselves in drag. If you pick the same round as me, I win. It’s my column, I make the rules.
Baghdatis has a career 5-10 record on clay and Rochus is 6-1 on clay this year. Matchstats.com, by the way, is an excellent resource for player statistics including records on different surfaces and head-to-head comparisons. Be careful, though, they include challengers in their totals for different surfaces. Tomas Berdych looks good on clay until you see that all of his wins are in challengers.
Haas should rebound unless an injury is bothering him. He’s beaten Ljubicic in both Masters Series events they’ve played and has a better record on clay. Robredo has beaten Haas both times they’ve met on clay and should get to the semis. Use Robredo on your team in the clay court season, his two titles are on clay.
Gaudio beat Berdych in their only clay court match and is 4-0 against Gonzalez including two matches on clay. Alessio Di Mauro is a curious guy. Every tournament he’s played in his two year career has been on clay except for one appearance at Wimbledon. I’m tempted to put him over Henman but Henman got to the third round at Rome and Hamburg last year. No matter, he’s in Nadal’s quarter of the draw.
Poor Carlos Moya has to face Rafael Nadal in the first round. After his loss in the semifinals at Estoril, he said, “Rafa’s on a great streak, but it’s got to end some time.” True, but not in the first round and not likely in Rome either.

