Toronto: eleven weeks to go

Yes, we could be getting ready for Federer-Nadal round IX, both are entered into this week’s Masters Series event in Toronto which will pay $400,000 to the lucky winner. If they do meet in the finals, it would be a critical match for both players. Wimbledon was critical for Federer because he had to beat Nadal on grass, but if Nadal beats Federer here, it sets Nadal up to win the US Open.

It’s time to look at the overall season so you can keep a bit of perspective here. There are eleven weeks left in the fantasy league season with four Masters Series events and one slam to go. There are five weeks left in the outdoor hard court season, six weeks of indoor play, and two anomalous outdoor clay court events. Clay court season never ends.

Be smart here. Ljubicic looks like he can get to the semifinals but he is a fast court player and indoor surfaces are faster than outdoor. Madrid and Paris are indoor Masters Series events. I would also save Nadal for Madrid because he is a very proud man and wants to win in his home country.

For some reason, wild cards Frank Dancevic and Peter Polansky get to play each other in the first round but Robbie Ginepri has to play David Nalbandian.

Be careful about choosing the following players:

Fernando Gonzalez: he’s been playing well with his new coach, Larry Stefanki, but Robin Soderling, his first round opponent, has beaten Gonzalez in all three of their meetings on hard court including Indian Wells earlier this year.

Andy Murray: his first round opponent, David Ferrer, has done very well on hard courts this year.

Nikolay Davydenko: Feliciano Lopez, his third round opponent, has won all three of their matches.

Lleyton Hewitt: he’s struggling and Juan Ignacio Chela has done surprisingly well on hard court this year.

James Blake and Andy Roddick could meet in the third round. I haven’t heard anything about Roddick’s muscle pull yet but I still go with Blake. I also haven’t heard anything about Nalbandian’s abdominal muscle pull but I’m assuming it’s completely healed.

Blake and Nadal is the hardest call. Blake is 2-0 against Nadal on hard court. Nadal lost in the first round of Miami this year and Cincinnati last year. Blake lost in the first round at Cincinnati last year but he lost to Federer. Based on all that, I go with Blake.

I have Murray over Nalbandian because Nalbandian hasn’t done well in Toronto or Cincinnati in the last few years. Neither has Murray, or course, but he’s on a bit of a roll.

Haas won Los Angeles last week and has done very well all year when he hasn’t been recovering from an injury. The problem is his third round meeting with Federer so you’d be settling for $27,000 if that’s alright with you.

I have Safin over Marcos Baghdatis only because a Masters Series event might not be important enough for Baghdatis to pay attention. Most players have trouble playing at the slams because they’re high pressure events. Baghdatis has the opposite problem, those are the only tournaments he wakes up for.

This is another of those weeks where you might end up choosing some lower tier players. It’s painful in the short term but you might be smiling later on if you save Ljubicic. My picks put the quarterfinalists as: Murray, Nalbandian, Blake, Nadal, Federer, Lopez, Ljubicic and Safin. Lopez is a money player, could do well and he won’t get picked by too many people, and Safin is a reach. The next tier down would be Roddick, Berdych, Haas and Baghdatis.

Eleven weeks to go.