It’s time for the ATP Fantasy Tennis Season so check out our Fantasy Tennis Guide. You’ll find Fast Facts, Strategies, and Statistics to help you play the game. Sign up and join our subleague! It’s called tennisdiary.com. We send weekly email updates to all subleague members before the submission deadline.

This week’s submission deadline is Monday morning, October 27, 4am (EST) in the U.S./10am (CET) in Europe.

Here we are at the end of our fantasy tennis season. This week’s Masters Series event in Paris is the last event. It might be easy to pick because most of us have used up the top players. We need eight players for our team so let’s pick two players from each quarter – the quarterfinalists.

Paris draw (carpet, first prize: $553,846)

Rafael Nadal is the top seed but everyone has used him up, so Gael Monfils is the second best choice. He’s 2-0 over Marat Safin and he reached the semifinals in Bangkok, the final in Vienna, and the quarterfinals in Madrid.
There are three qualifiers in the second section so check the final draw before you submit your picks to see if anyone interesting qualified through to the main draw. For now I have to choose between Stanislas Wawrinka, Tomas Berdych, and Nikolay Davydenko. I’ve used up Berdych and Wawrinka has only one win in his last three events. Davydenko won this event two years ago, reached the quarterfinals the year before that, and is 7-0 over Berdych. I was smart enough to save my last Davydenko for this event so he’s my pick.

There are two quarterfinalists and one semifinalist from last year’s draw in the third section. Andy Murray was a quarterfinalist and he’s on a tear. He’s 13-1 indoors, he won Madrid, and he’s in the final in St. Petersburg, but I’ve used him up. Marcos Baghdatis was a semifinalist last year but he lost in the first round in Metz and Basel and didn’t play Madrid. Tommy Robredo was a quarterfinalist last year too but he hasn’t been past the second round indoors this year. Fernando Verdasco reached the quarterfinals in Vienna and the semifinals in St. Petersburg so he might be the second best choice to Murray, but he’s never been past the second round here and I’ve used him up, so I’m going to look elsewhere in the draw for a player.

Juan Martin Del Potro and David Nalbandian appear to be joined at the hip. They met in Madrid, with Del Potro winning, and Nalbandian just beat Del Potro in the Basel semifinals. I’m picking them both because I need an extra player to make up for the last section and they’re both on a roll.

Andy Roddick has two semifinals and a quarterfinal in five trips to Paris but I’ve used him up. Gilles Simon reached the final in Madrid – where he beat Igor Andreev – and the semifinals in Lyon, but I’ve used him up too. Feliciano Lopez reached the semifinals in Vienna and Basel and the quarterfinals in Madrid, but he could play Roddick in the second round and he’s 0-4 against him. I’m picking Paul-Henri Mathieu out of sheer desperation because he’s 2-0 over Andreev on fast courts, and he’s 3-0 over Simon including a win on indoor hard court in Marseille this year.

Novak Djokovic is the top seed in the next section but most people have used him up. He hasn’t gone past the second round here though I expect he will this year. Radek Stepanek reached the semifinals the last time he played this event in 2005, and the year before that he reached the final. Since then, though, he’s 3-3 on carpet. For that reason, I’m picking Jo-Wilfried Tsonga because he’s 9-3 indoors this year and just reached the semifinals on carpet in Lyon.

James Blake has never been past the third round here but he did beat Jarkko Nieminen the last three times they met indoors, he beat Mikhail Youzhny on a slick indoor surface in the Davis Cup final last year, and he beat David Ferrer the only time they met indoors. I’ve used up all my Blakes, though, so I need to pick between Ferrer and Youzhny who both reached the quarterfinals here last year, but are having awful fall indoor seasons. Ferrer beat Youzhny on carpet in 2003 and Youzhny beat Ferrer in Rotterdam last year. I’m going with Youzhny because he won their most recent matchup and at least he’s got one win this fall indoors.

The last section is tough to pick because I’ve used up Richard Gasquet – who’s been playing poorly anyway, Robin Soderling, and Roger Federer. That leaves me with Marin Cilic and Andreas Seppi. Cilic was 5-2 on indoor hard court last year but he’s 2-4 this year and he has only two career wins on carpet. Seppi’s record is pretty similar. I’m going with Seppi because he beat Cilic on hard court in Davis Cup this year on Cilic’s home court in Croatia.

Picks

Here are my picks for this week: Monfils, Davydenko, Del Potro, Nalbandian, Mathieu, Tsonga, Youzhny, and Seppi.

Happy fantasies!

ATP Fantasy Tennis Picks for Basel, Lyon, and St. Petersburg

It’s time for the ATP Fantasy Tennis Season so check out our Fantasy Tennis Guide. You’ll find Fast Facts, Strategies, and Statistics to help you play the game.

Sign up and join our subleague! It’s called tennisdiary.com. We send weekly email updates to all subleague members before the submission deadline.

This week’s submission deadline is Monday morning, October 20, 2am (EST) in the U.S./8am (CET) in Europe.

There are three tournaments this week: Basel, Lyon, and St. Petersburg. Next week is the last event of the fantasy tennis season and it’s the Masters Series event in Paris, so save your best players for that. I need eight players for my fantasy team so let’s pick the semifinalists in each event and pick the best eight players from those semifinalists.

Basel draw (carpet, first prize: $223,384)
Lyon draw (carpet, first prize: $177,692)
St. Petersburg draw (indoor hard court, $171,000)

Roger Federer is the top seed in Basel but I can’t imagine anyone hasn’t used him five times this year. If you haven’t, save him for next week. Tomas Berdych reached the quarterfinals last year but I’ve used him up already. Jarkko Nieminen is here and he reached the finals last year, but he’s 0-9 against Federer and 0-3 against Berdych. Marcos Baghdatis is a possibility because he reached the semifinals last year and the final three years ago, but he’s been injured so often lately that I don’t think you can count on him. I’m skipping to the next quarter.

The second quarter isn’t any easier to pick because I’ve used up James Blake. Nicolas Kiefer reached the quarterfinals last year but he’s got one win indoors this year. I’m picking Feliciano Lopez who just reached the semifinals in Vienna and the quarterfinals in Madrid.

Igor Andreev and Juan Martin Del Potro are in the third quarter. I’ve used all my Andreevs and I’m saving Del Potro for next week. I don’t think anyone else in this quarter can beat Del Potro so I’m skipping down to the fourth quarter.

The fourth quarter has the two best bets in Stanislaw Wawrinka and David Nalbandian. Nalbandian has reached the quarterfinals or better in four of the last five years and he’s 6-1 indoors, so I’m going with him.

I don’t like to do it because Basel has a bigger payday, but I’m picking two players from Basel: Lopez and Nalbandian.

Sebastien Grosjean is in the first quarter in Lyon and he won this event last year, but he’s lost in the first round of the last four tournaments he’s played and hasn’t won anything indoors this year. I’ve used up all of my Andy Roddicks and Robin Soderlings and they’re in the first quarter too so, let’s skip down to the second quarter.

I’ve used up Gilles Simon. Ivo Karlovic just beat Robin Soderling and Novak Djokovic in Madrid before losing to Simon, so Karlovic is the best choice left. Ivan Ljubicic reached the quarterfinals last year and he’s always dangerous on carpet, but he couldn’t get out of qualifying in Madrid this week, so I’m going with Karlovic.

The third quarter is tough to pick. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is 6-2 indoors this year and he reached the quarterfinals last year, but Marc Gicquel is his first round opponent and Gicquel reached the final the past two years. Tsonga and Gicquel played each other in futures and split their two matches. Fabrice Santoro is also in this part of the draw and he reached the semifinals in Moscow. Paul-Henri Mathieu is at the top of this quarter and he’s had a good year indoors, but he retired during his match with Santoro in Moscow and lost in the first round in Madrid. I’m going with Tsonga because he’s beaten higher quality opponents than either Gicquel or Santoro and I’m not sure Mathieu can beat Sam Querrey.

In the bottom quarter, Tommy Robredo is having a miserable year indoors so I’m going to have to depend on Radek Stepanek to beat Richard Gasquet because I’ve used up all my Gasquets. There is hope. Gasquet won this event two years ago but that’s the only time he’s been past the second round and he’s having an average year indoors.

I’m taking Karlovic, Tsonga, and Stepanek in Lyon.

Andy Murray is the top seed in St. Petersburg and he won this event last. It’s a bit surprising he’s here because he’s in the final in Madrid, he has Paris next week, and he’s already sewed up a place in the year end Masters Cup. Mario Ancic is here too and he won this event two years ago but he can’t beat Murray. I’ve used up all my Murrays so I’m skipping this quarter.

Fernanado Verdasco is in the second quarter and he has two low ranked wild cards in his section. He also beat Rainer Schuettler in Dubai this year. Igor Kunitsyn beat Dmitry Tursunov in Moscow so I’m going with Verdasco.

In the third quarter Mikhail Youzhny has reached the quarterfinals or better here in four of the last five years. Marat Safin is waiting for him in the quarterfinals, however, and Safin is 3-0 over him including one win indoors. I’m taking Safin because he’s 5-2 in Russia this year, has won 80% of his matches in Russia, and Youzhny lost in the first round in Moscow and Madrid.

Marin Cilic is in the fourth quarter. He got to the semifinals here last year and he just reached the third round in Madrid beating Verdasco along the way. Cilic is also 2-0 over Nikolay Davydenko and beat him here last year, so Cilic is my pick.

That gives me Verdasco, Safin, and Cilic in St. Petersburg.

Picks

Here are my picks: Lopez, Nalbandian, Karlovic, Tsonga, Stepanek, Verdasco, Safin, Cilic.

Happy fantasies!

Juan Martin Del Potro beat David Nalbandian in Madrid and may be on the way to passing him in the rankings too..

Juan Martin Del Potro broke David Nalbandian in the first game of their match in the Masters Series event in Madrid with a running passing shot down the line. Nalbandian had run Del Potro to one side of the court then the other and come to the net, but he gave up on the passing shot because he didn’t think it was going in. He knows how good Del Potro is, we all do, but Del Potro shot into the top ten so quickly that we’re all having trouble really believing it.

Eleven players have won four titles as teenagers and 10 of them went on to reach the number one ranking. I wonder which one didn’t reach number one. Anyone know? Any guesses?

I do know that none of them won their first four tournaments in a row as Del Potro did this summer and that was the shocking thing. This spring I was wondering what had happened to Del Potro. I knew he was tall and he had a killer backhand, but I’d been following the other young players Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic and for good reason. Djokovic won a slam and Murray has been in the top 20 for much of the year while Del Potro was ranked number 81 at one point this year.

By the time Del Potro got to Los Angeles in early August, he’d already won two tournaments in a row and we asked him, as often as we could and in as many different ways as we could: What happened? What did he do? What did he change? How did he explain his sudden run up the rankings? His English isn’t great and he’s not the most expansive talker so most of the answers were variations of this: I changed my coach and he changed my conditioning.

That second one is a biggie because Del Potro is the king of match retirements – I stopped counting them already – and one of them was highly consequential. His retirement against James Blake in the Las Vegas round robin event last year toned the death knell for round robin events when ATP CEO Etienne de Villiers momentarily passed Blake onto the next round despite the fact that he hadn’t won enough games to advance because Del Potro retired. This pissed everyone off and showed that de Villiers didn’t understand the format he’d introduced to the tour. Thanks a lot Juan Martin, I actually loved round robins. It’s all your fault!

His new coach may have improved Del Potro’s conditioning but I did notice that he took off for Argentina and skipped both Masters Series events in Toronto and Cincinnati after winning those two clay court events in Europe. He also gave Philipp Kohlschreiber a walkover in Vienna last week because he split a toenail.

Del Potro is a fragile guy physically and much of his maturity has been a process of coming into his body. He’s 6’6” (198cm) and he’s had breathing issues and other niggling problems but no big injuries, just enough to knock him out of a tournament one week and let him turn up the next week to try again. It’s almost as if someone came along and tied him to one of those stretching racks you see in old horror movies and then slowly turned the crank over the period of a few years. Along the way, each little bit of his body had to fill out and adjust to every new inch and there were some aches and pains along the way, but when he reached his final height, he popped off that stretching rack and out of the lab and, bam!, he won four straight tournaments and he hasn’t stopped climbing the rankings yet.

Nalbandian hit an approach into the net to lose a second service game and go down 0-3. He got one of those breaks back but Del Potro closed out the first set and he did it in style with a 22 stroke rally that looked like Nalbandian in his prime. You can see it at the end of the video above. He’s not as strong as Nalbandian but he’s got a better serve and he uses his height to smash winners at extreme angles.

I’m curious about the relationship between Del Potro and Nalbandian. Del Potro hit a shot right at Nalbandian’s body in the first set – Nalbandian threw him a look – and their post-match meeting at the net was cursory at best. It’s certainly not the same relationship that Carlos Moya has with his young charge and fellow Davis Cup teammate Rafael Nadal and that’s a bit surprising because Del Potro is the bright young light of Nalbandian’s Argentina and these days, players are so loved dovey with each other that I expected a bit more love at the net. And Moya doesn’t seem to begrudge Nadal his success even though Moya is slipping down the rankings at this point in his career.

If Nalbandian were a bit jealous of Del Potro, I’d understand because Del Potro has done the one thing that always frustrated us about Nalbandian – win tournaments. Four years after Nalbandian won his first title, he had five titles to his name and none of them were Masters Series events except for the Tennis Masters Cup in 2005, the highlight of his career. This is the sixth straight year he’s spent significant time in the top ten and he has one slam final to show for it plus the Madrid and Paris title last year.

Del Potro started the second set off the same way he started the first set, with a break of serve, this time on a Nalbandian error. Nalbandian gave him another break on a double fault to put Del Potro up 5-2 and that was that.

In the past four years Nalbandian had two semifinals, a final, and a title in Madrid, but his string of good results ended today and it was a significant event. He beat Del Potro here last year in their only previous meeting. Nalbandian said that his focus at the moment is preparing for the Davis Cup final against Spain to be held in Argentina after the Tennis Masters Cup. Del Potro was the Argentinean who won both his matches in the Davis Cup semifinals this year, not Nalbandian, and it’s likely that trend will continue.

Will Del Potro go with the odds and make it to number one at some point in his career? In the immediate future he’d have to overtake Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic – who lost to Ivo Karlovic today and may have blown his chance at overtaking Federer this year, and Andy Murray.

Del Potro will outlast Federer, he’s better on clay than Murray, and he has a chance to be almost as consistent as Djokovic on all surfaces – two of Del Potro’s four wins this year were on clay, two on outdoor hard court. So I’ll say he can sneak into the number one ranking for at least a week over those three players. I’m also going to say that this was a career year for Nadal and though he’ll hold onto the number one ranking for a while, it won’t be the five years that Federer held it.

I know your answer already Sakhi, and I’ve already lost enough bets with you, but I’m going with a yes on this guy. Del Potro will find himself at number one at some point in his career. If 10 out of 11 players who won four events as teenagers reached number one, those odds are too good to pass up.

Nicolas Almagro isn’t making as much progress on hard court as we thought he would. What does he need to do?

What is up with Nicolas Almagro? This is a strongly built guy with a big serve and flat hard shots yet he can’t get it going on outdoor hard court and he’s even worse indoors.

Almagro lost to Simone Bolelli in the first round in this week’s Masters Series event in Madrid. Not only was Bolelli a lucky loser but Almagro went on to lose the second set by the frightening score of 6-1 after losing the first set in a tiebreaker. And that’s the second week in a row he’s done it. Last week in Metz he lost the second set to Eduard Schwank 6-2 after losing the first set in a tiebreaker. That was a first round loss too.

Losing the second set that badly was a weak response to a disappointing but not disastrous event – losing a tiebreaker. Almagro’s first response was to get mad. After missing a shot to go down 15-40 on his serve early in the second set, Almagro smashed his racket on the bottom of his shoe and mangled it. The racket that is, not his foot. Though I imagine it couldn’t have felt good.

He followed that up by mistaking the Pista Central for rush hour in Barcelona. He was down 0-3 in the second set when he bunted a soft overhead long. Two points later he served the ball before Bolelli was ready. At the very least, smashing a racket implies that you’re stopping and thinking about the situation, but here was Almagro blithely marching forward in a downward spiraling direction. I’d have faked a foot injury or something, anything, to slow the world down a bit and give myself a good talking to. The dead quiet of his home country spectators probably made him feel even worse.

In times like this, a player has to take the smallest glimpse of hope and pump it up into something encouraging because there’s no stasis in competitive sports. You’re getting better or worse, it’s very seldom that you cruise, and that’s what was disturbing. Almagro is number 17 in the world and he was accepting his thrashing. He wasn’t exactly lying down and saying “hit me,” it was more like a grim march with no self-reflection or change in tactics or even despair outside of that smashed racket.

Somewhere in his psyche Almagro has to find that desperation. Maybe it’s as simple as refusing to look bad in front of spectators or fellow players. Maybe it’s throwing caution to the wind and hitting out until he finds something that works. Anything to change things up – especially himself. When passion should take over, disappointment followed by a dejected acceptance seems to take over.

Players do different things when they’re behind. Rafael Nadal holds steady and, when a situation presents itself, he jumps right in and takes advantage of it. Other players change their strategy. Things are going badly as it is and no one is as steady as Nadal, so players usually need to do something different. James Blake suffers from this problem: he has no backup plan and he bristles at the idea that he should have one. Some players have the opposite problem: they give up their game strategy without giving it significant time to succeed, but that’s rare.

The truly successful players raise the level of their game but how do they do that? Sorry about going on and on here. I’m still recovering from the death of one of my favorite writers, David Foster Wallace. I’ve been reading his essays nonstop and he was known to go on a bit. Don’t worry, though, I won’t resort to the footnotes and addendums on footnotes he was famous for.

What Wallace did well was to get to the heart of the matter and the heart of the matter here is: What does it mean to raise the level of your game? And how do learn to do it? You have to find a place within you that wants to win more than anything else in the world (okay, with a few exceptions such treasuring your loved ones as much as yourself). If you’re a professional athlete and you can’t find that place inside you, you’re in tough luck because what other profession gives you as much license to be self-absorbed except maybe movie stardom or hedge fund trading.

It took Pete Sampras a few years to figure out that he was willing to be the guy with a target on his back and not the guy who was more willing to live with the pain of ending tournaments with a loss than be the target of the sniping and jealousy that goes with being number one; that winning was important enough to put up with feeling separate from other players rather than being one of the guys, or having the media bug you and dissect you and misquote you and ask if maybe it wasn’t time to retire when you still had a few slams left in you.

In other words, someone who would rather hide than sit in full view like those people at charity fundraisers who sit on a platform over a bucket of water waiting for someone to hit the target and collapse the platform sending them hurtling into the water. It’s purposely embarrassing to fall in the water and most of us, me included, would rather throw at the target.

Novak Djokovic got a taste of it this year after he won a slam in Australia. Last year he was the darling of the slams with his imitations of Nadal and Andy Roddick and any other player with the slightest tic. This year Roddick teased Djokovic about his medical injury timeouts and he didn’t respond well. The crowd at Arthur Ashe Stadium booed him mercilessly when he complained about Roddick’s comments after beating Roddick in the quarterfinals at the US Open. Djokovic will survive and win more slams because he’s willing to put himself in that situation. Winning is more important than having everyone in the stadium love you.

So, ultimately, I can sympathize with Almagro because I’d rather be loved than admired. But going up the rankings is a step by step process and he could start with a baby step. Personally, I’d send him off to a hypnotherapist to learn how to relax when he gets behind in a match instead of getting mad or giving up, but he might consider that too esoteric and, in any case, he’s not likely to listen to me. At the very least, he’s going to have to do something different and risk looking worse before he gets better because losing badly while trying is a whole lot better than giving up.

It’s time for the ATP Fantasy Tennis Season so check out our Fantasy Tennis Guide. You’ll find Fast Facts,
Strategies, and Statistics to help you play the game.

Sign up and join our subleague! It’s called tennisdiary.com. We send weekly email updates to all subleague members before the submission deadline.

This week’s submission deadline is Monday morning, October 13, 4am (EST) in the U.S./10am (CET) in Europe.

This week we have the next to last Masters Series event of the year in Madrid, so make the most of it because Masters Series events pay a lot of money and the European Masters events pay more than the US events. We need eight players for our fantasy team so let’s pick the quarterfinalists, two players from each quarter.

Madrid draw (indoor hard court, first prize: $553,846)

Rafael Nadal has a pretty easy path to the quarterfinals. In the past three years he’s reached the quarterfinals twice and won this event. However, I’d be surprised if anyone hasn’t used Nadal five times already and I’ve used up my Richard Gasquets. Nicolas Kiefer did reach the semifinals here last year but Nadal beat him indoors in Davis Cup this year. Since Kiefer is Nadal’s first opponent, I’m going to have pick three players in one of the other sections.

The next section is virtually impossible to pick. First of all, four of the players reached the quarterfinals or better this week in Vienna or Stockholm. Second of all, that number does’t include the seeds in this section, Stanislas Wawrinka and David Ferrer. Ferrer didn’t play and Wawrinka lost in the first round in Vienna to Philipp Petzschner who beat Feliciano Lopez to get to the final. Carlos Moya just reached the quarterfinals in both Metz and Vienna after winning a total of three matches indoors in the past four years. What am I suppose to make of that? Philipp Kohlschreiber got to the semifinals in Vienna and he reached the semifinals in Moscow and St. Petersburg last year.

I’m picking Lopez because Kohlschreiber has never played in either Madrid or Paris, Wawrinka has never gone past the second round on indoor hard court outside of Vienna, and Lopez beat Ferrer in both their matches on indoor hard court including Madrid last year.

Dmitry Tursunov just won the title in Metz and he won the Bangkok title last year, but I don’t think he can beat Novak Djokovic in the second round. Most of us have used up our Djokovics so that leaves us to pick between Robin Soderling and Ivo Karlovic. Soderling is 14-4 on indoor hard court this year and he just reached the final in Stockholm. Soderling it is.

I still have one Nikolay Davydenko left but he’s never gone past the third round in Madrid. Then again, James Blake has never won a match here in four attempts. However, Blake beat Gilles Simon twice this year, he’s 5-0 over Igor Andreev, 2-0 over Michael Llodra, 6-0 over Nikolay Davydenko including two matches indoors, and he beat Safin in their only meeting indoors. Safin is in the Moscow final tomorrow so he’s a viable pick, but I’m going to say that Blake finally has to win a match here and I’m picking him.

I’ve used up all five of my Andy Roddicks but that’s okay because he’s never been past the third round here. Gael Monfils just reached the semifinals in Bangkok and he’s in the final in Vienna, and Fernando Gonzalez has reached two quarterfinals and a final here in the past three years. Andreas Seppi and Tommy Robredo haven’t done much on indoor hard court this year so I’m choosing between Monfils and Gonzalez who have never played each other. I’m going with Gonzalez because Monfils has never been past the first round here.

Andy Murray has the easiest path of all to the quarterfinals. The only thing that could hurt him is inactivity. He hasn’t played an ATP event since the US Open but then, neither has Marin Cilic. Cilic reached the semifinals in St. Petersburg last year but that’s the only time he’s won a match on indoor hard court. Fernando Verdasco just reached the quarterfinals in Vienna but Murray is 3-0 over him including a win last year at St. Petersburg. Murray it is.

David Nalbandian is at it again. He took both the Madrid and Paris titles last year after a down year and this week he’s in the Stockholm final. Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro are in this section too as are Rainer Schuettler and Jarkko Nieminen. Schuettler just reached the quarterfinals in Stockholm but he’s 0-3 in Madrid, and Nalbandian just beat Nieminen in Stockholm. I’ve already used Berdych five times so that leaves me with this question: can Del Potro beat Nalbandian? Nalbandian beat him in their only meeting here in Madrid last year, but that was before Del Potro won four tournaments in a row. Still, Nalbandian has a title, a final, and two semifinals here in the past four years so I’m taking him.

After faking everyone out last week by announcing on his website that he was skipping Stockholm and he wasn’t sure when he’d return to the tour, Roger Federer is playing in Madrid. I saved him for one fall tournament and since he has a title, a final, a semifinal and quarterfinal in his four appearances here, I’m using him.

Since I didn’t pick anyone in Nadal’s section, I need one more player. I’ve got two more Del Potros so I’m going to use him because he’s should get to the third round.

Picks

Here are my picks for the week: Lopez, Soderling, Blake, Gonzalez, Murray, Nalbandian, Del Potro, Federer.

Happy fantasies!