Rear View Mirror – a look at last week’s picks
I picked the winner in Acapulco – Nicolas Almagro – and one other semifinalist. One day I’ll learn to trust in David Nalbandian. He reached the final and he’s now back in the top ten. I got exactly one semifinalist in Zagreb because the winner was a qualifier and a lucky loser at that – someone named Sergiy Stakhovsky, and only two seeded players reached the quarterfinals. I got only one semifinalist in Memphis too because Robin Soderling beat Andy Roddick and will meet Steve Darcis in the final.
License plate seen on a midnight blue VW Bug in mid-morning traffic just north of Hollywood, California:
I’m Not Suffering From My Addiction To Rafael Nadal, I’m Loving Every Minute Of It!!!
I gave the thumbs up to the Rafa-besotted driver and she returned it.
Dubai (outdoors, hard court)
Rafael Nadal is playing in Dubai this week and so are eight of the top ten players because this is by far the richest tournament outside of the Masters and the slams.
That would explain Roger Federer’s horrible luck. He faces 12th ranked Andy Murray in the first round. I’m not a good enough stats person to figure when two such highly ranked players met in the first round, but I’m betting it’s a very rare occurrence. Murray is turning into a regular Nikolay Davydenko: so far this year he’s won two tournaments and gone out in the first round in two tournaments. He beat Federer two years ago in Cincinnati but Federer had just won the Canadian Masters and was playing back to back Masters. This time Federer’s had a month off so he should have the edge, but it’s not much of an edge.
David Ferrer gets Tommy Haas in the first round but Haas has been playing poorly since he returned from his latest shoulder problem. Gael Monfils is making his first appearance of 2008 and his first opponent is Tomas Berdych. Berdych had never gone past the second round here and though he should beat Monfils, he could go down to Tipsarevic so I’m giving this quarter to Ferru.
Novak Djokovic has returned after a sickness break. Mikhail Youzhny is smack dab in the middle of his quarter, though, and Youzhny could be big trouble because he beat Djokovic twice last year, he’s 2-1 over Richar Gasquet – the other seed in this quarter, and he reached the final and two semifinals in the last four years. I’m picking Youzhny.
I don’t know what to make of Nadal. He lost to Andreas Seppi in the second round at Rotterdam and lost to Youzhny easily in the Chennai final, though that followed a marathon with Carlos Moya. But he beat Andy Roddick – the other seed in his quarter – in Indian Wells last year so I’m picking him to get to the semis and no further.
Semifinals: Federer, Ferrer, Youzhny, Nadal
Final: Federer, Youzhny
Winner: Federer
Las Vegas (outdoor, hard court)
Because this is The Tennis Channel Open, tennis lovers in the U.S. will get every day, all day coverage of this tournament on The Tennis Channel and no coverage of Dubai. It’s not a bad tournament here in Las Vegas – Fernando Gonzalez, Lleyton Hewitt and Marcos Baghdatis are here – but most people in the U.S. would rather be watching Dubai, don’t you think?
Robin Soderling is here too and he’s tearing things up since he returned from a six month injury to his wrist. He’s in the Memphis final this week and he reached the Rotterdam final last week. What does it all mean?
Gonzalez is having an average year on hard court and the question is: can he beat Michael Llodra? Llodra had two titles already this year – one on hard court – so no, I don’t think Gonzalez can beat him.
Soderling and Baghdatis are in the next quarter and Soderling beat Baghdatis in Rotterdam, but I’m picking Baghdatis because this is Soderling’s fourth straight tournament and I think he’ll tire.
Thomas Johansson is Guillermo Canas’s main competition in the next quarter because there are two clay court players here. Canas should be able to beat him easily.
Lleyton Hewitt’s quarter is tricky because Sam Querrey and Sebastien Grosjean are there. Hewitt won this tournament last year and reached the final the year before so I’m picking him. I’m ignoring Hewitt’s first round opponent, Marat Safin, until he shows me something.
Semifinals: Llodra, Baghdatis, Canas, Hewitt
Final: Baghdatis, Hewitt
Winner: Hewitt