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Federer Ends the Funk and Beats Nadal, Finally

WE HAVE A RIVALRY!!!! Finally, thankfully, we have a rivalry on the ATP tour.

Tennis sicko that I am, I rolled out of bed and checked the tennis scores before I even had time for my first yawn and there it was: Roger Federer, a 2-6, 6-2, 6-0 winner over Rafael Nadal in the Masters Series Hamburg final.

Yep, that score is right. Federer beat Nadal for the first time on a clay court, ended Nadal’s record winning streak on clay at 81 matches, and pulled off the most surprising match of the year. That is if you don’t count his losses to Guillermo Canas and Filippo Volandri.

How did Federer do it? Somehow he found his forehand and his serve and his nerve all at once. If you remember last year’s French Open final against Nadal, Federer inexplicably decided to stay back on the baseline and incurred the derision of Mats Wilander, who famously questioned his cojones.

If staying back was Tony Roche’s idea, that may explain why he was fired as Federer’s coach last week. That may also explain why Federer gets the sometimes overused label tennis genius. He’s not only the number one ranked player in the world but he can strategize better than one of the best coaches. Left to his own devices, Federer managed to strike just the right balance of aggression: he served and volleyed, attacked Nadal’s second serve, and repeatedly hit wide to Nadal’s forehand then came into the net.

After losing his serve twice in the first set, things were looking bad for Federer. At 1-1 in the second set, Nadal ran from one side of the court to the other and curled a beautiful passing shot around Federer. After a mishit and a backhand error, Federer was down two more break points and I was ready to write the same boring column: Fed still in a funk.

Then his game turned on. A beautiful scoop volley, a forehand approach winner, one more volley and he had game point. Three straight trips to the net and the rout, believe it or not, was on. Nadal won exactly one more game. Federer had found his marvelous forehand and he hit it as hard as he could pinning Nadal behind the baseline and forcing him into short shots which Federer ate up at the net.

The funk had lifted. The switch he couldn’t find against Canas in Miami and the forehand he lost playing Volandri in Rome were back. He could elevate his game when he needed it and he needed it badly to have any chance at winning the French Open and getting a calendar grand slam.

As for Nadal, he was probably tired. He barely beat Lleyton Hewitt in the semifinals and he usually skips this tournament to rest for the French Open – he hasn’t played here since 2003. He was already angry at ATP CEO Etienne de Villiers for planning to reduce the number of Masters clay court events from three to two and now he’s probably even angrier. Nadal surely would not have played Hamburg if he hadn’t protested so loudly about de Villiers’ plans to downgrade the Masters Series status of both Monte Carlo and Hamburg. How could he put up a stink then not turn up?

If it was one too many tournaments for Nadal, it was just right for Federer. I don’t think anyone expected him to right himself emotionally in the space of one week. Here we all thought the pressure of the long run at the top had finally gotten to him and, instead, it was his relationship with Roche.

The French Open all of a sudden becomes ten times more exciting. Nadal will be fighting for his third straight title and Federer is desperate for the chance to win all four slams. Tighten your seat belts and consider this one last question:

Now that Federer has beaten Nadal on clay, who’ll win the French Open?

Poertschach and Dusseldorf: Picks and Previews

Everyone who lost early in Hamburg is in Poertschach or Dusseldorf for a few more clay court matches before the French Open starts next week.

Rear View Mirror: a look at last week’s picks

Carlos Moya and Lleyton Hewitt in the semifinals at Hamburg? Please, even a betting genius couldn’t have predicted that. By the way, check out this site: pUnt.com, the musings of a professional gambler who bets on tennis. This punter has great insight into the scope of knowledge and discipline necessary to make your livelihood from gambling. Punter, by the way, is a British term for a gambler.

Okay, so I was wrong, Rafael Nadal is still here in Hamburg – I said he’d find an excuse to stay home, and Guillermo Canas is not – he lost in the first round to Juan Ignacio Chela. I was right about Novak Djokovic though, I said he looked tired. He went out to Moya in the quarterfinals.

And I did have Roger Federer in the final. He looks to be about 80% of his old self which won’t be enough to beat Nadal, his opponent in the final. Think of it like this: if Federer is still the second ranked player on clay and he’s playing at about 80% of his clay court self, that makes Nadal 20% better than everyone else on clay at the moment.

POERTSCHACH (clay)

Check out the bottom quarter of this draw, it looks like the misfits’ happy hour. Andy Roddick, Sam Querrey and Hyung-Taik Lee are fast court lovers while Gael Monfils has lost his way to the point that he is now playing challengers. I read a rumor that Monfils has signed with Renaissance Management, the tennis group coached by Tarik Benhabiles. Tennis is so conservative these days that one of it’s most demonstrative and distinctive young talents – Mr. Monfils – can’t seem to find a coaching situation that accommodates his unusual talent. That’s too bad because he has exceptional physical skills and we need a personality like him in the regular draw.

Hyung-Taik Lee could survive the misfits’ quarter and meet Lleyton Hewitt in a semifinal.

Nikolay Davydenko is the defending champion but I’m gonna say that Juan Monaco beats him then loses to Ivan Ljubicic in the semifinals because Monaco put up a good fight against Federer in Hamburg and made it to the quarterfinals here last year.

That puts Ljubicic and Hewitt in the final. Hewitt fought Nadal to 5-5 in the third set in Hamburg before finally succumbing, believe it or not. Hewitt will be back up to a ranking of #16 after this week and he’s had two quarterfinal appearances at Roland Garros so it’s not that far fetched.

Poertschach draw

Picks:
Quarterfinalists: Davydenko, Monaco, Ljubicic, Albert Montanes, Stanislas Wawrinka, Hewitt, Lee, Roddick
Semifinalists: Monaco, Ljubicic, Hewitt, Lee
Finalists: Ljubicic, Hewitt
Winner: Hewitt

DUSSELDORF (clay)

Dusseldorf hosts the World Team Cup which is basically an excuse to have another tournament in Germany. The eight best tennis countries in the world judged by ATP year end rankings break into two groups and play that dreaded round robin format that caused so many problems earlier this year.

There’ll be no problem here because the results don’t count in the rankings. Why bother to play then, you ask? Because players know they won’t lose in the first round since it’s round robin and they can count on three or four clay court matches to warm up for the French Open.

Each country plays two singles matches and one doubles match against another country and I’m obviously not going to look at all of those matches so let’s just look at the strongest countries and leave it that.

Argentina is bringing Juan Ignacio Chela, Agustin Calleri and Jose Acasuso and they look the strongest. Spain is bringing David Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro and they look good too. Almagro had a good match in Hamburg against Tommy Robredo then lost to Acasuso and Ferrer lasted until he met Federer. Those two countries should be in the final.

Fernando Gonzalez and Nicolas Massu will play for Chile and should come in third and Germany might manage fourth place with Philipp Kohlschreiber, Florian Mayer and Benjamin Becker if they’re lucky.

Take it easy this week and rest up for the second grand slam of the year and those long, long five set matches at the French Open.

See you then.

Federer and Canas Could Meet Again in Hamburg

If Nadal takes the week off, look for the latest Federer-Canas meeting in the final at Hamburg.

We have a new game in tennis: find the player in the draw who’ll beat Roger Federer this week. If Filippo Volandri – a wild card – can beat him in Rome, anyone can. Federer was obviously none too happy about that loss because he fired his coach Tony Roche this weekend.

Federer hired Roche to put more attack and volley in his game but it seems to have knocked Federer out of his rhythm. It could be that focusing so intently on improving his clay court skills and winning the French Open has thrown the rest of his game off. Let’s see if going solo returns some semblance of normalcy to Federer’s game this week.

Federer’s Half of the Draw

Robin Soderling should be Federer’s quarterfinal opponent because Soderling has beaten David Ferrer all four times they’ve met and he’s better than Ivan Ljubicic on clay.

I expect Novak Djokovic to find a reason not to play Hamburg even though it’s a required event because he’s looking pretty tired. That’s what happens when you’re tied with Rafael Nadal for the most wins this season: you get worn out. Even if Djokovic did play, he’d meet Mikhail Youzhny in the third round and Youzhny has beaten him twice this year. Youzhny has also beaten Tomas Berdych three times this year and that should get him a semifinal match against Federer.

I’ve ignored James Blake because Berdych should be able to beat him on clay.

Nadal’s Half of the Draw

I think Nadal will find a reason to drop out too. That dizzy spell and hospital visit in Rome set up the perfect excuse for Nadal to claim a health problem. I could be wrong – and if I am, I’m sure you’ll let me know about it – but I’m proceeding as if Nadal is not here.

Guillermo Canas beat Nikolay Davydenko in Barcelona. That was before Davydenko found his game and played a superb match against Nadal in Rome, but Canas is also 3-1 lifetime over Davydenko so I’m going with Canas. Canas is also 3-1 over Tommy Robredo and has beaten him this year.

I don’t know who’ll win if Fernando Gonzalez and Richard Gasquet meet in the third round, they’ve never played before. Gasquet is a better clay court player but Gonzales has found his game again and reached the final in Rome. It might not matter, though, because Canas beat Gonzalez the last time they met in Hamburg and Canas also beat Gasquet in their only meeting. Jeez, Canas has a winning record over everyone, including Mr. Federer.

By my calculations, that gives us a Federer-Canas final and that’s a match I’d love to see. I do not believe that Federer would let Canas beat him for a third time this year.

Hamburg draw

Picks
Quarterfinalists: Federer, Soderling, Youzhny, Berdych, Robredo, Canas, Gasquet, Igor Andreev
Semifinalists: Federer, Youzhny, Canas, Gasquet
Finalists: Federer, Canas
Winner: Federer

Davydenko Battles Nadal While Federer Fires His Coach

Nikolay Davydenko lost a brilliant battle to Rafael Nadal in their Rome semifinal while Roger Federer fired his coach two weeks before the French Open.

Nikolay Davydenko had the right game plan to beat Rafael Nadal in their Rome semifinal and he played the match of his life, but he was one skill short: attack mode. He came to the net when he was assured that Nadal was out of position but again and again he found himself inside the baseline and decided to backpedal instead of move forward and attack.

Davydenko got all those short balls because he pushed Nadal by taking the ball early and hitting wide to Nadal’s backhand. Once he got Nadal on the run, he kept him on the run. But he didn’t attack quite enough and that uncovered one more problem: size. Davydenko is a small guy and Nadal is a big, bruising hitter. If Davydenko had attacked just a bit more he might have been able to win the first set. But he lost it in a tiebreaker and by the third set, he’d run out of the strength he needed to push Nadal around the court while Nadal was still humming.

This was the match we’ve been waiting for since last year’s five hour, five set final between Nadal and Roger Federer. When Nadal had time to run around his forehand and set up shop, Davydenko found a way to get the ball back. When the rally went on forever, Davydenko hit away until Nadal made an error. When Nadal served for the first and second set, Davydenko broke him.

It was everything Davydenko had but it wasn’t enough and it must have been a bitter loss. As he walked off the court the crowd yelled and clapped for him. He threw his hands up halfway and out to the side and half grimaced/half smiled in response, a gesture expressing the appreciation and the pain.

I’m sure Roger Federer saw the match and it might have been bittersweet for him too because he has the skill that Davydenko doesn’t. Federer-Nadal is a fascinating twosome in that regard. The fiery but one-dimensional Nadal drives himself to excellence and the supremely skilled Federer stays calm enough for his tennis brilliance to emerge.

Desire trumps finesse on clay, though, and Federer’s attempt to change his game to win the French Open appears to have come to a sticking point. He hired Tony Roche to improve his net play and he fired him this weekend just two weeks before the French Open.

There are rumors that Lleyton Hewitt will hire Roche and Federer will hire Darren Cahill. I’m not sure why Roche would want to work with Hewitt and it’s not Federer’s style to be desperate for help. It’s just the opposite, he’s gone for long stretches without a coach. Still, it leaves Federer without direction at the moment and sets up a curious situation for someone with the best shot in his career at a calendar grand slam.

Perhaps last year was his best shot.

Federer’s Slump

Is Federer in a slump?

I had hoped to talk about a new rivalry today. I didn’t expect Novak Djokovic to beat Rafael Nadal in Rome but I thought he could give him a good match. Djokovic played much better in the second set than the first and he showed promise, but he still lost their quarterfinal match, 6-2, 6-3. Instead of talking about that rivalry, let’s go back and revisit Federer’s latest loss.

Is Federer in a slump? This year he has two titles in six tournaments and lost in Rome to wild card Filippo Volandri, a very unFederer-like state of affairs.

Our reader Maria thinks he’s in a state of denial and unwilling to admit that he has a problem. My co-writer Pat thinks Federer has the existential problem of having himself as his biggest challenger because there are so few other challengers out there. A tough situation if you think about it. If his challenger is inside, if it’s his inner self, is that enough to propel him to his two remaining goals: a calendar grand slam and fifteen slam wins (one more than Pete Sampras’ record)?

Federer has two problems at the moment. On hard court he doesn’t have a credible challenger which makes it hard to maintain a high level of emotional drive for winning. On clay his challenger is a fierce competitor who favors eccentric attire and tied the record for consecutive wins on a single surface today with his victory over Novak Djokovic. Nadal tied John McEnroe’s record of 75 consecutive wins on indoor carpet.

Federer hired Tony Roche and improved his game in order to beat Nadal on clay court but so far he has failed. This year he is regressing instead of progressing. Federer’s two challengers appear to have ganged up on him and left him reeling a bit.

Nadal has improved his clay court game while Federer has not and Federer’s inner self is suffering a lack of drive. That’s a pretty big one-two punch. Add one more goal that Federer may be pursuing: greatest of all time. He will not be the greatest of all time as long as Nadal is supreme on clay and that could be eating at Federer’s inner self too.

You can see why Federer befriended Tiger Woods. On two occasions Woods changed his stroke to improve his game and on both occasions he went into a slump while he remade himself only to emerge and return to dominating the PGA tour. Woods is trying to beat Jack Nicklaus’ record of eighteen major wins, he currently has twelve. Federer currently has ten slam titles.

Maybe Federer’s competition with Woods to see who can reach their goal first will prop up Federer’s inner self. And maybe Woods can help Federer figure out how to muck his way through a slump and return to domination.

I don’t think it will be enough to help Federer win a French Open as long as Nadal is healthy, but anything can happen, and I’d bet a whole lot on Federer breaking Pete Sampras’ record.