Monthly Archives: September 2007

Davis Cup Picks

There’s no ATP fantasy tennis this week because it’s time for Davis Cup. So let’s pick that instead. First, let’s recap last week.

Rear View Mirror – A look at last week’s picks.

Miserable. Just miserable. Gael Monfils forgot to enter the Bucharest Open so he qualified and took out my guy Filippo Volandri in the first round. Nicolas Almagro retired in his first match and only one ranked player got to the semifinals. My only remaining player was Tommy Robredo. He got to the final in Beijing and lost to Fernando Gonzalez who decided it was time to win his first matches on hard court since March.

Davis Cup

The US is one match away from getting to the Davis Cup final. So is Sweden. The two countries will meet on a super fast indoor carpet surface in Gothenburg, Sweden, to see which one gets there.

The US is lucky because Sweden’s Robin Soderling will miss the tie. That leaves Sweden’s Jonas Bjorkman and Thomas Johansson to battle with Andy Roddick and James Blake in singles. It looks like the US would have to work hard to lose this tie.

Bjorkman got to the quarterfinal at Marseille on indoor hard court earlier this year, but he beat two clay court players to get there and that was the last time he’s done well at an indoor event since 2005. He’s 2-4 against Roddick and 0-2 against Blake.

Thomas Johansson got to the final at St. Petersburg on carpet last year but he’s 0-5 against Roddick and 0-2 against Blake.

There are a few problems however. Strange things happen when players get patriotic in front of their home crowd. Blake is 11-7 in Davis Cup which is not overwhelming. His record in five set matches is 1-10. And then there’s that second Johansson.

Joachim Johansson has been out since the Australian Open and he missed much of last year with shoulder surgery. But if he’s slightly healthy, that could be enough to team up with Jonas Bjorkman – or Simon Aspelin – to steal the doubles rubber because Joachim’s serve is monstrous.

Even though Aspelin teamed up with Julian Knowle to win the US Open doubles title this year, it’s not likely to happen because the US has the Bryan brother and they’re 11-1 in Davis Cup doubles.

I would be very surprised if I was not booking my ticket to the Davis Cup final in some US city come late November. And that also means that Russia will beat Germany in the other semifinal because if Germany wins, the final will be played in Germany.

Marat Safin won’t be in Moscow for the tie against Germany. He’s climbing the sixth highest mountain in the world, Cho-Oyu, which is on the Nepal-Tibet border. Makes sense to me. What else would he be doing in the middle the tennis season besides climbing a tall mountain?

Maybe Safin will get to the 27,000 foot (8201 meter) high peak and find a guru freezing his butt off in a cave. Maybe the guru will give Safin Shaktipat and his days of being a tortured soul will come to a glorious end. Nah, never happen.

Russia wisely chose clay for the surface because Russian players Nikolay Davydenko and Igor Andreev love clay. Germany’s Tommy Haas avoids it like the plague and he’s 1-3 against Davydenko including a loss at the US Open

Andreev is 4-0 against Germany’s other singles player, Philipp Kohlschreiber. That may mean that 37th ranked Andreev will play singles instead of 17th ranked Youznhy. Youzhny, instead, will team up with Dmitry Tursunov to play doubles against Alexander Waske and Philipp Petzschner.

Looks to me like it’s a US-Russia Davis Cup final.

Lindsay Davenport’s Quick Turnaround

Over on the WTA side of the tennis world, Russia dominated Italy to win the Fed Cup. More interesting to me was the result in Bali.

Lindsay Davenport retired after playing Bali last year and gave birth to son Jagger three months ago. Then she unretired and returned to Bali for her first tournament back and won the damn thing. Not only that but she beat Jelena Jankovic along the way.

Admittedly, many players use Bali as a vacation to decompress from the US Open and shop for pearls, but Lindsay was 21-8 in 2006 before she retired and she got to the quarterfinals at the Australian and the US Open so she can do some damage.

Winning a tournament three months after giving birth, by the way, is unbelievable. First of all you have to recover from the birth itself, then suffer through a few months of sleeplessness adjusting to the baby’s feeding patterns, and then there’s the physical preparation for a professional tennis match. I am impressed.

I’ll be back with ATP fantasy picks for Bangkok and Mumbai next week.


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tennis funnies contest

Pat and I are fans of New Yorker Magazine so we’re going to rip off their weekly caption contest and call it tennis funnies.

See that image of Fernando Gonzalez up there? Come up with the best caption for the photo and you’ll win the following prize: free use of Tennis Diary for one day. Yes, write anything you want as long as it’s not libelous and doesn’t contain any dirty words and isn’t plagiarized and we’ll publish it.

Please leave your entries in the comments section. Pat and I will choose the winner. We take bribes.

(Debra, if you’d like to join in, the photo shows Fernando Gonzalez puffing his cheeks out at a fuzzy green tennis ball that looks like it’s inches away from his face.)


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Five Diverse Players at the Claremont Futures Event

Juan Manuel Elizondo, Radu Albot, Nikita Kryvonos, Michael McClune and Stephen Amritraj all played tennis matches at the Claremont Futures tournament just outside of Los Angeles yesterday. Futures tournaments are one step below Challenger events which are one step below main draw ATP events. Futures events typically feature college and beginning professional players.

It might not look like it but only one of those tennis players has no ties to the U.S. and only one of them has ties to exclusively to the U.S.

Take Juan Manuel Elizondo. He was born and raised in Mexico but his mother was born and raised in California. There is a Mexican Tennis Federation but Juan Manuel never got much help from them and this is a recurring theme in the world of junior tennis. Players from poorer countries get little help from their national tennis associations.

The Lawn Tennis Association of Britain pays Brad Gilbert almost one million dollars a year to coach Andy Murray, for instance, but Radu Albot won’t see much if anything from his country, Moldova, a small country of four million people surrounded by Romania and Ukraine.

Radu trains in Frankfurt, Germany with his coach Djerald Oganezov, a Georgian coach he met at a junior tournament in Germany. Oganezov has helped Radu a great deal and this is important because it’s likely to take Radu at least a few years to reach the top 100 and he won’t make a living on the Futures circuit. Most Futures events have a total prize money of $10,000.

Radu has no ties to the U.S. but he would have if his family had entered the green card lottery and received one of the 269 slots open to Moldovians. Each year the U.S. government holds a lottery for 50,000 green cards designated for countries that are underrepresented in the U.S.

Nikita Kryvonos’s family is from Ukraine and they won their green card in the lottery when Nikita was 13 year old. After he won a few age group tournaments, the U.S. Tennis Association (USTA) began helping him even though he wasn’t yet a citizen.

As soon as he became a citizen, they helped him further by making him a hitting partner on last year’s Davis Cup team for the tie in Moscow. The Davis Cup team hazes new players and Nikita got his share. He had to carry a plate of tomatoes out of the US Embassy after a team dinner. I’ve no doubt that counts as a breach of Homeland Security.

Michael McClune hasn’t hit with the Davis Cup team yet but it can’t be far away. He won the most prestigious U.S. junior tournament – Kalamazoo – in July and that got him a wild card into the main draw at the U.S. Open. He lost his first round match but he did get to hit with Roger Federer for two and a half hours on his 18th birthday. I’d settle for that.

Michael is the player with the exclusive U.S. ties and he’s the only player in the group who has signed with IMG, the sports management company that also happens to represent Mr. Federer. Michael doesn’t have to worry about finding a sponsor to bankroll his next year or two in the minor leagues of tennis.

Stephen Amritraj was born to an Indian father and an American mother and raised in the U.S. with some of his youth spent in India. He is one smart and determined guy. He finished Duke University in three and a half years and played tennis through his senior year despite suffering two torn acls, one in each knee.

He suffered his first torn acl in junior tennis and re-injured his knee the following year playing on the Duke tennis team. At the end of his junior year, he tore the acl in his other knee. In Stephen’s words, “Usually when someone has one you don’t hear about it again let alone having two.” In other words, one torn acl is often the end of a successful tennis career, two is unheard of.

He plans to focus on doubles and is off to Bombay next week to play an ATP level event after which he’ll return to California to play Challenger events.

Since Stephen majored in political science at Duke, I asked his opinion about the Duke rape case. Last year three innocent Duke lacrosse players were indicted for raping a black college student who was hired to strip at a team party. The players were vilified by the national media and local population and the District Attorney brought the indictments without corroborating evidence. The District Attorney was recently disbarred for his actions.

Stephen was not lacking an opinion. While he decried the treatment of the players by the media and the judicial system, “I hate what happened to them, no one ever deserves that no matter how bad they are,” he also said, “I just want to go on record – you can print this wherever you want – that group of guys had it coming to them.”

It’s easy to focus on the miscarriage of justice in this case and forget some of the things that actually did happen that night. As Stephen put it:

If you look at the facts of that night and what they did, they definitely hired a stripper, they definitely yelled racial epithets at her, they definitely treated her horrendously and disrespected her, and did whatever they could to berate her.

This is one of the reasons I like going to Futures and Challengers events. I know I’ll speak to someone from a small country I’ve barely ever heard of, but I also know I’ll learn more than I ever expected about the country I live in.

Go out to Claremont and watch these young men play the final rounds of the tournament. Go to Futures and Challenger events in your area. You’ll see the next generation of our top tennis players and learn something about the world.


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How the ATP Should Deal with Gambling

Tennis players say they’ve been offered money to influence the outcome of tennis matches. What should the ATP do about it?

Some people in the US complained about the National Football League’s (NFL) treatment of Michael Vick during his dogfighting difficulties. Leaders in the black community asked us to let due process take its course and feminists wondered why Vick was getting worse treatment for animal abuse than other athletes received for abuse against women.

Michael Vick has pled guilty and will be sentenced in December. As for feminists’ concerns, the NFL is obviously concerned about brutality to animals and humans but they leave those judgments to the judicial system. When it comes to gambling, however, they take care of it themselves and dogfighting is gambling. The NFL has no legitimacy if the game on the field is fixed.

The ATP should take note of this. There have been a number of tennis matches this year alone showing irregular betting patternsNikolay Davydenko’s match against Martin Vassallo-Arguello in Sopot being the most notable.

We don’t have any concrete information about match fixing but people are coming out of the woodwork in the wake of the discussion about the Davydenko match. Players Bob Bryan, Tomas Berdych, and coach Larry Stefanki all said they knew of incidents where players had been offered money to influence the outcome of a match.

Dmitry Tursunov and Paul Goldstein said were offered money to fix a match. Goldstein is a good choice because there’d be no controversy if he lost. He loses quite often.

The French sports daily L’Equipe published interviews with two anonymous “elite” tennis players who claim that they’ve seen matches being thrown. The players also said they’ve been offered bribes to fix a match.

L’Equipe is the same publication that somehow manages to leak all of the positive test results of the Tour de France and also reported positive test results on 1999 B samples of Lance Armstrong’s urine. L’Equipe, by the way, is owned by the Amaury Group which also runs the Tour de France.

Sometimes I’m not sure if L’Equipe is reporting the news or making the news but in this case, I’m happy to have the information even if it does come from anonymous sources.

Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams wrote the book Game of Shadows which chronicles Barry Bonds involvement with the Balco Scandal and steroids. I was in the audience at the Los Angeles Times Festival of Books when someone asked Fainaru-Wada why he and other sports journalists didn’t uncover evidence about steroid use in baseball sooner. He said he would have had to use anonymous sources and people would not have believed him.

I disagree. Anonymous sources are not ideal but once the information is in print, the subject is then out in the open and people will discuss it. And if there’s truth to it, the truth will come out sooner rather than later.

Now that tennis has joined the rest of the sports world with its very own gambling controversy, what should the ATP do about it? The ATP has asked the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) to help them investigate the betting on the Davydenko match. That was a good idea and here’s why.

As you can see in this Guardian article, the BHA employs betting analysts whose job is to investigate irregular betting patterns on horse races. One of the sites they monitor is internet gambling site Betfair.com which had the irregular betting patterns on the Davydenko match.

After the Davydenko match, Befair notified the ATP that there was a problem but the BHA takes it one step further. They monitor bets in realtime because they have an agreement with Betfair that gives them access to every bet recorded on the site.

And they get results. In recent months, two prominent jockeys were banned for passing on insider information after separate investigations by the BHA.

Internet gambling makes it easier to gamble but, luckily for us, it also makes it easier to uncover match fixing. Looks for new job opportunities at the ATP in the near future under the category of betting analysis.


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Read more about the irregular betting patterns on the Davydenko match.

Woods vs. Federer: Who’s the Best?

This morning on ESPN Radio, a commentator gave the following reason why Tiger Woods is better than Roger Federer: Roger only has to beat six players to win a major, Tiger has to beat the entire field.

Wrong.

First of all, it’s seven players not six. Roger has to beat seven players to win a major. Second, Tiger has to beat the course and one bad day doesn’t knock him out of a tournament.

Tiger plays one tournament a year with head-to-head matchups. He’s entered it eight times and won it twice. I’m sure Roger reminds him of that very thing in their ongoing text-messaging smackdowns.

I cannot say who is better, Tiger or Roger. I’m just happy to live through the beginning and middle of their careers and hopefully I’ll live through the end of them too.

I will say that Tiger is mentally stronger. Roger isn’t even the best in his sport in that category. Rafael Nadal is the player who can gut out the five hour marathons. Roger hasn’t needed it up until now because he usually wins so easily. Nadal is the only one who’s extended him to five sets in a major final.

On the other hand, as far as movement and athleticism goes, Roger is the Nijinsky of tennis. Tiger gets to stand still while he plays his sport.

I’ll also say this about Tiger and Roger as the greatest of all time (G.O.A.T.) in their respective sports. Some people wonder why we waste so much time arguing about G.O.A.T.s but I think players deserve it because that’s the main thing that drives them. Why else spend your life trying to pass Jack Nicklaus’ record for majors (18) or Pete Sampras’ record for majors (14).

Tiger is easy. If he wins more than 18 majors he’s in (he currently has 13).

If Roger wins 14 majors (he currently has 12) he’s better than Sampras because he got to the final of the French Open at least twice and Sampras did not . No matter how many majors he wins, he still has to share the podium with Rod Laver who has two calendar grand slams (all four majors in the same year).

If Roger wins 14 or more majors and one of them is the French Open, however, he stands alone and that’s even if he doesn’t go through Nadal to win it. Andre Agassi has a career slam (all four majors though not in the same year) but he needed a few rain delays and the timely onset of cramps in his opponent to win his only French Open Title. It takes a bit of luck.

I’d put Roger past Laver with only a career slam and 14 or more majors because Laver’s grand slams were played on only two surfaces: grass and clay. The Australian and the US Open switched to hard courts later.

Many people think Roger’s superiority is bad for tennis because it’s boring to know the outcome of a major before it starts. Maybe, but he’s so good that his name regularly appears on sports shows whether Tiger is in the conversation or not, and that’s a good thing because tennis will keep slipping in the ratings without that exposure.

The best writers also gush over his game resulting in such prose as this op-ed from the New York Times and these pieces from the New Yorker.

Our reader Gabs drops by and trashes us for fawning over Federer whenever we write anything positive about him but we’d have to be pretty cynical to deny the obvious.


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