The first grand slam of the year has arrived and the number one ranking is already in question.<\/b><\/p>\n
Think about this for a minute: Roger Federer could lose the number one ranking to Rafael Nadal by the end of the Australian Open. Will it happen? Let\u2019s see.<\/p>\n
Roger Federer\u2019s Quarter<\/b><\/p>\n
Juan Monaco and Tomas Berdych are waiting around in the top half of Federer\u2019s quarter but Monaco still isn\u2019t good enough on hard court and 2004 was the last time Berdych beat Federer.<\/p>\n
In the bottom half of Federer\u2019s quarter there are a few stories. Ivan Ljubicic\u2019s ranking has been sinking since last August and I don\u2019t expect him to recover. James Blake dropped out of the top ten last October and is currently ranked number 15. I don\u2019t expect him to drop further but I also don\u2019t expect him to get back to the top ten. Ljubicic has a 4-1 record over Blake but his victories came over two years ago and Blake won their last match. If they meet in the fourth round, Blake should win.<\/p>\n
Then we come to Fernando Gonzalez. He reached the final here last year then played through the most wildly inconsistent year I\u2019ve every seen from a top player. He lost his first match in eight tournaments yet still ended up in the top ten. Well, except for Nikolay Davydenko who also lost his first match in eight tournaments but we expect that from him.<\/p>\n
If Gonzalez gets to the fourth round and meets Blake, he should be golden because he\u2019s won their last five matches. That would put him in the quarterfinals against Federer but Gonzalez can\u2019t win that match.<\/p>\n
Novak Djokovic\u2019s Quarter<\/b><\/p>\n
Marcos Baghdatis is in Novak Djokovic\u2019s half of this quarter but he\u2019s right up there with Gonzalez and Davydenko for inconsistency. Still, Baghdatis should be able to beat Lleyton Hewitt and that should put him in the fourth round against Djokovic. That will be as far as Baghdatis gets because he\u2019s lost both of his matches to Djokovic.<\/p>\n
I think Nicolas Kiefer will take out Juan Carlos Ferrero in the first round. Kiefer is one of my two dark horses. He could get to the fourth round because David Nalbandian is having trouble with back spasms. That wouldn\u2019t be shocking because Kiefer got to the semifinals here in 2006. He\u2019d meet David Ferrer and though he beat Ferrer in their only meeting, this time Ferrer should prevail.<\/p>\n
I\u2019d love to tell you that Ferrer could beat Djokovic in the quarterfinals but I\u2019d be lying. Djokovic has beaten Ferrer every time they\u2019ve met on hard courts and he beat him in straight sets at last year\u2019s U.S. Open.<\/p>\n
Nikolay Davydenko\u2019s Quarter<\/b><\/p>\n
My second dark horse is Stanislas Wawrinka. I say he beats Davydenko in the third round then loses to Mikhail Youzhny. The big match here is a possible fourth round matchup between Richard Gasquet and Andy Murray. I think one of them gets out of this quarter and into the semifinals. Which one?<\/p>\n
This is the toughest match in the draw to call because Gasquet and Murray have similar hard court records. Gasquet has beaten Murray both times they\u2019ve met but that\u2019s not why I\u2019m choosing him. I just think Gasquet is a bit more mature than Murray and is ready to reach the semifinals here.<\/p>\n
Rafael Nadal\u2019s Quarter<\/b><\/p>\n
We\u2019ve been concerned about Nadal\u2019s fragility on hard courts and we saw it again in Chennai two weeks ago. Nadal survived a four hour semifinal with Carlos Moya then suffered a lopsided loss in the final the day after. This doesn\u2019t happen on clay and it doesn\u2019t even happen at Wimbledon. Nadal played seven straight days in Wimbledon last year due to the rain and still got to the final.<\/p>\n
Given Nadal\u2019s fragility I didn\u2019t think he\u2019d go far here but now I\u2019ve changed my mind. I was expecting a knock down drag out fight between Moya and Nadal in the fourth round but Moya has bombed out in the first round the last three years. He just beat his first round opponent, Stefan Koubek, in Sydney last week but Koubek won both their hard court matches last year. And Moya lost to his second round opponent, Agustin Calleri, in Sydney.<\/p>\n
That leaves Andy Roddick in the top half of Nadal\u2019s quarter. Philipp Kohlschreiber should be Roddick\u2019s third round opponent and I wanted to pick him as one of my dark horses because he just won Auckland. But Roddick takes care of business in slams so let\u2019s look at Roddick versus Nadal in the quarterfinals.<\/p>\n
Nadal beat Roddick in the semifinals at Indian Wells last year so I\u2019m going with Nadal to get to the semis.<\/p>\n