It\u2019s time for the first Masters Series event of the year and the men are ready \u2013 all top ten players are here. The women? That\u2019s another story. Justine Henin, Amelie Mauresmo, and Kim Clijsters are staying home. It\u2019s understandable given that Indian Wells is a two week event followed by another two week event, Miami, and Miami is required attendance for the women. But there\u2019s another way to look at it.Henin just completed the \u201cemirate swing\u201d: consecutive titles in Dubai and Doha – two very rich tournaments on the other side of the world from the desert town of Indian Wells. Doha just announced that it\u2019s doubling its prize money next year and that makes it the richest Tier I tournament and even puts it ahead of Indian Wells.<\/p>\n
There are currently too many tournaments and too few top players to go around but this example tells you why it\u2019s unlikely to change any time soon. Tournament directors don\u2019t want their tournaments taken away, the president of the ATP, Etienne de Villiers, doesn\u2019t have enough clout to take them away, and the players won\u2019t give up huge paydays.<\/p>\n
A lot of crapola rained down on me last week for daring to suggest that round robins are a good idea but here you see a problem that round robins help solve. If you\u2019re a small tournament and you only have one or two top twenty players, round robins keep those players in the tournament for at least two matches and help you market your product.<\/p>\n
Speaking of Dubai, Roger Federer spends a lot of time in Dubai and owns property there but Kristian Pless is the first player I\u2019ve seen who actually calls it home. And now I see why. Just like Monte Carlo (the usual second home for tennis players), Dubai has no personal income tax. Pless is from Denmark. If there are any Danish readers, how do the tax rates compare to the rest of Europe?<\/p>\n
Justin Gimelstob is in the draw. Didn\u2019t he just have back surgery? Wasn\u2019t he retired?<\/p>\n
I\u2019m tempted to put Sam Querrey past Nikolay Davydenko because Davydenko has never gone past the third round at Indian Wells. Davydenko is a good returner but what the hell, Querrey is winning 86% of his service games so I\u2019ll take him. Gulp, that means I have Querrey through to the quarterfinals. Could happen.<\/p>\n
For statistical geeks, check this out. If you\u2019re wondering who\u2019s the best all court player outside of Federer, click here<\/a> and look at Tomas Berdych\u2019s core ratings on all five surfaces. Core ratings tell you how good a player is on a particular surface by considering such factors as won-loss record and quality of opposition. Berdych is good but Novak Djokovic does him one better. Look at his core ratings<\/a>.<\/p>\n Djokovic should get the quarterfinals where he\u2019ll meet James Blake. Blake is not an all court player but hard court is his specialty. He made it to the final here last year and lost to Federer. This year he should lose to Federer in the quarterfinals.<\/p>\n Mikhail Youzhny has been a monster this year. He already has two finals, a semifinal and a title. Which brings up the following problem: his likely second round opponent, Sebastien Grosjean, has beaten him all four times they\u2019ve met. Normally I\u2019d go with head to head record but Grosjean hasn\u2019t beaten anyone this year so I\u2019m going with Youzhny.<\/p>\n Picking top flight hard court events this spring has become an exercise in figuring out who will take out Rafael Nadal because someone usually does. At the U.S. Open it was Youzhny. Last week in Dubai it was Youzhny. Unfortunately for Nadal, Youzhny is in his eighth of the draw and will probably do it again.<\/p>\n What has happened to Nadal? He hasn\u2019t reached a final since Wimbledon last year. If Nadal is just as strong on clay this year as the past few years, then we\u2019ll know the problem is court speed. Players have figured out how to beat Nadal on fast courts. Nadal recently said the problem is not his tennis, it\u2019s his mental consistency. If he falters on clay too, then he\u2019s right.<\/p>\n David Nalbandian has continued to stagnate. He has a losing record for the year. Is his interest waning? I don\u2019t think he\u2019ll make it past the third round.<\/p>\n Fernando Gonzalez has the most interesting quarter of the draw. He could meet Tommy Haas then Andy Murray. Gonzalez beat Haas at the Australian Open and Indian Wells is pretty fast so I\u2019m choosing Gonzalez again. Murray is improving rapidly and should take out Gonzales and lose to Federer in the semifinals.<\/p>\n The other semifinal should be a U.S. Open redo: Andy Roddick and Youzhny. I\u2019d love to take Youzhny but he has a terrible record at Indian Wells and lost his last three matches to Roddick.<\/p>\n Final: Federer-Roddick XV. Current standings: Federer 14 – Roddick 1. Need I say more?<\/p>\n