Federer-Nadal VIII: stay tuned

In the Rome final on clay earlier this year, Roger Federer had two match points before finally losing to Rafael Nadal in the fifth set. He got those match points by attacking at every opportunity. At Roland Garros, he thought the surface was playing slower than Rome so he stayed back in the final and lost to Nadal in four sets. He let the slowness of the surface dictate his game and paid for it.

Could Federer afford to stay back and play baseline tennis against Nadal on grass?

The grass at Wimbledon this year is not playing like grass. The ball bounces higher than usual and the balls are heavier so Federer has not been attacking as much as in past years. He let the slowness of the surface dictate his game again, successfully so far. But now he had a real dilemma. Nadal had steamrolled all but one of his opponents at Wimbledon and that opponent, Robert Kendrick – a qualifier I might add, came within two points of beating Nadal with classic serve and volley tennis. Could Federer afford to stay back and play baseline tennis against Nadal on grass?

Federer had a another problem. Nadal had made it to the final. If Federer couldn’t beat him soundly, Nadal would believe that he could beat Federer the next time they met here. Could Federer hold onto his psychological edge over Nadal on grass?

Federer decided to play the same way he played the first two weeks. He came to the net if an opening appeared otherwise he stayed on the baseline. He made sure he served well and he usually hit his approach to Nadal’s backhand, otherwise it was business as usual. He depended on his slice backhand to keep the ball low. As he explained:

A good defensive slice can help you out, but an offensive slice sometimes doesn’t really give you everything, you know, on clay. On hard court it pays off more. That’s maybe why my results are even better on grass and hard court.

For the fourth time in their eight matches, Federer got out to a one set lead and it was a bagel at that: 6-0. Federer has been exceptional at starting strong this Wimbledon, no doubt the difficult draw pushed him to focus early and often, but it also didn’t mean much because Federer had always lost to Nadal when he’d won the first set.

Never one to give up, Nadal hit a few shots off the baseline and two excellent passing shots to break Federer in the first game of the second set. Federer gave the edge right back. But Nadal showed the first case of nerves. Serving for the set at 5-4, Federer used one of the those low slices to get one point and Nadal hit three errors for the rest to lose the game and let Federer go on to win the second set in a tiebreak.

Now they were playing evenly and the third set went to another tiebreak. Nadal started it off with a passing shot off a quasi-overhead and now you could see the quintessential Nadal celebration. Federer hit a few errors and Nadal hit another amazing shot, a slingshot inside out return, and the tide was turning. Another error and Federer had missed an opportunity to win the match in straight sets and unequivocally express his dominance.

Facing break point at 1-2 in the fourth set, Nadal mistimed a popup return from Federer and hit the ball long. As he made contact, the vibration dampener flew off his racket and landed behind Federer. It reminded me a bit of those stories where an enlightened zen practitioner slips off the side of the mountain but has the presence of mind to notice the beautiful plants on his way into the abyss. Nadal had just lost his serve and was down two sets yet he still noticed that the vibration dampener flew off and pinpointed exactly where it was even though it flew to the other end of the court.

With Nadal serving at 1-4, 30-30, Federer delivered what looked like the knockout punch. He hit four of the hardest forehands imaginable until Nadal finally fell down running for the last one and Federer had a break point to go up 5-1. It looked very similar to his match against Andre Agassi at last year’s US Open final – he pumped up the volume and ran away with the match. He was reasserting his dominance.

Still, as he said after the match, “I was getting awfully nervous in the end.” He gave up the next two games then finally served it out for a 6-0, 7-6(5), 6-7(2), 6-3 victory and his fourth Wimbledon in a row. He looked relieved rather than elated.

He might want to get used to nervousness. This summer will be the biggest test of Federer’s career. As it stands now, Federer is the champion on grass only. Yes, he won the Australian, but Nadal wasn’t there and Federer lost the only hard court match he played against Nadal. If Nadal can win the US Open, the pendulum will start to swing towards the young man from Mallorca and away from Federer.

At the very least, we can hope for a few transcendental matches between these two superior players. I have visions of Nadal winning an 18-16 fourth set tiebreaker followed by a composed Federer stepping to the baseline and winning the next set for yet another Wimbledon title. Wait a minute, that was McEnroe who won that tiebreak in 1980 and Borg who won that fourth set. I think I have that backwards.